J&j Snack Foods Corp

JJSF

Cookies & Crackers

Mkt Cap

$3.145B

PE

36.56

Debt

$17M

Cash

$43.65M

EV

$3.118B

FCF

$106.1M

Market Cap

$3.145B

P/E Ratio

36.56

Debt

$17M

Cash

$43.65M

EV

$3.118B

FCF

$106.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":71814000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":70183000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":75975000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":79174000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":103596000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":94819000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":18305000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":55607000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":47235000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":78906000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":919451000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":976256000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":992781000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":1084224000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":1138265000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":1186487000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":1022038000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":1144579000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":1380656000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1558829000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.07810530414345082},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.0718899550937459},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.07652745167363195},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.07302365562835723},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.09101219838965444},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.07991575128931037},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.017910292963666714},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":0.048582928744979596},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":0.03421199777497074},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.050618765753010754}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":704773000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":742935000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":790487000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":867228000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":932013000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":1019339000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":1056553000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":1122219000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":1216966000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1277236000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":562518000},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":599919000},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":637974000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":682322000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":759091000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":833751000},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":809498000},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":845654000},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":863169000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":911518000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.1276652480453959},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.11698745997376313},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.1190879252132532},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.11603612370698878},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.1364737561109274},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.11372580062872488},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.02261277977215509},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":0.0657562076215568},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":0.054722771554585485},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.08656548746157508}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.15160626187439077},{"time":"2015-09-25","value":0.1506444036153903},{"time":"2016-09-23","value":0.14778105142779072},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.1409087344965799},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.12677076392711262},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.12417556867734875},{"time":"2020-09-25","value":0.020317012019273998},{"time":"2021-09-24","value":0.06596395177768333},{"time":"2022-09-23","value":0.050781205062425734},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.08574609547491614}]}

J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures, markets, and distributes nutritional snack foods and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets, and Frozen Beverages. It offers soft pretzels under the SUPERPRETZEL, PRETZEL FILLERS, PRETZELFILS, GOURMET TWISTS, MR. TWISTER, SOFT PRETZEL BITES, SOFTSTIX, SOFT PRETZEL BUNS, TEXAS TWIST, BAVARIAN BAKERY, SUPERPRETZEL BAVARIAN, NEW YORK PRETZEL, KIM & SCOTT'S GOURMET PRETZELS, SERIOUSLY TWISTED!, BRAUHAUS, and AUNTIE ANNE'S brands, as well as under the private labels; frozen novelty under the DIPPIN' DOTS, LUIGI'S, WHOLE FRUIT, DOGSTERS, PHILLY SWIRL, SOUR PATCH, ICEE, and MINUTE MAID brands; churros under the TIO PEPE'S and CALIFORNIA CHURROS brands; and handheld products under the SUPREME STUFFERS and SWEET STUFFERS brands. The company also provides bakery products, such as biscuits, fig and fruit bars, cookies, breads, rolls, crumbs, muffins, and donuts under the MRS. GOODCOOKIE, READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, MARY B'S, DADDY RAY'S, and HILL & VALLEY brands, as well as under private labels; and frozen beverages under the ICEE, SLUSH PUPPIE, and PARROT ICE brands. In addition, it offers funnel cakes under the THE FUNNEL CAKE FACTORY brand, as well as various other food products; and sells machines and machine parts to other food and beverage companies. The company sells its products through a network of food brokers, independent sales distributors, and direct sales force. It serves snack bars and food stand locations in chain, department and mass merchandising stores, malls and shopping centers, fast food and casual dining restaurants, stadiums and sports arenas, leisure and theme parks, convenience stores, movie theatres, warehouse club stores, schools, colleges and other institutions, and independent retailers. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Pennsauken, New Jersey.

Sector

10-K
9/30/23
10-Q
6/24/23
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3/25/23
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12/24/22
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9/24/22
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6/25/22
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12/25/21
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9/25/21
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12/26/20
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9/26/20
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6/27/20
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12/28/19
10-K
9/28/19
10-Q
6/29/19
10-Q
3/30/19
10-Q
12/29/18
10-K
9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-Q
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of J&j Snack Foods Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$106.1M	$107M	$107.9M	$108.8M	$109.7M	$110.6M	$111.6M	$112.5M	$113.5M	$114.4M	$115.4M	$1.154B
DCF		$93.01M	$81.56M	$71.53M	$62.72M	$55M	$48.23M	$42.3M	$37.09M	$32.52M	$28.52M	$285.2M
Value	$837.7M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -5.4%

Earnings Stability 2.5%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Net Margin	7.2%	7.7%	7.3%	9.1%	8%	1.8%	4.9%	3.4%	5.1%	5.5%
ROA	15%	15%	14%	13%	12%	2%	6.6%	5.1%	8.6%	8.8%
ROE	12%	12%	12%	14%	11%	2.3%	6.6%	5.5%	8.7%	9.4%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.37%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.88%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.9%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.08%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +8%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.1%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	0.19	-	-	-	-	0.00	-0.90	0.40	0.16
Debt Equity	-	0.02	-	-	-	-	0.00	0.06	0.03	0.02
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	20%	77%	84%	100%	20%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.16.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.20.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.20.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	09-2016	09-2018	09-2020	09-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.7%	6.5%	15%	13%	1.2%
Net Income	0.54%	-5.3%	63%	67%	8.2%
Stockholders Equity	5.2%	3.7%	4%	5.6%	-0.6%
FCF	-1%	1.3%	25%	-	2%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.49%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.17%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -5.3%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.25%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.73%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.6%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.29%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.03%.