Investment Advice
Invesco Ltd. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm provides its services to retail clients, institutional clients, high-net worth clients, public entities, corporations, unions, non-profit organizations, endowments, foundations, pension funds, financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm also launches equity, fixed income, commodity, multi-asset, and balanced mutual funds for its clients. It launches equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and balanced exchange-traded funds. The firm also launches and manages private funds. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe. The firm also invests in alternative markets, such as commodities and currencies. For the equity portion of its portfolio, it invests in growth and value stocks of large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap companies. For the fixed income portion of its portfolio, the firm invests in convertibles, government bonds, municipal bonds, treasury securities, and cash. It also invests in short term and intermediate term bonds, investment grade and high yield bonds, taxable and tax-free bonds, senior secured loans, and structured securities such as asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The firm employs absolute return, global macro, and long/short strategies. It employs quantitative analysis to make its investments. The firm was formerly known as Invesco Plc, AMVESCAP plc, Amvesco plc, Invesco PLC, Invesco MIM, and H. Lotery & Co. Ltd. Invesco Ltd. was founded in 1935 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia with an additional office in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Invesco Ltd.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $852.9M | $821.1M | $790.5M | $761.1M | $732.7M | $705.4M | $679.1M | $653.8M | $629.5M | $606M | $583.5M | $5.835B |
DCF | $714M | $597.8M | $500.4M | $418.9M | $350.7M | $293.6M | $245.8M | $205.8M | $172.3M | $144.2M | $1.442B | |
Value | $5.086B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 19% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 17% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 20% | 11% | 10% |
ROA | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
ROE | 11% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +14.62%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.22%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.31%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.32%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +7.15%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.3%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 1.49 | 2.23 | -114.26 | 1.65 | 3.32 | 2.10 | 1.87 | 2.15 | 2.92 | 1.75 |
Debt Equity | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 89% | 100% | 90% | 59% | 61% | 100% | 83% | 59% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.75.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.07.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.59.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
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Revenue | 2.4% | 3.2% | -0.37% | -12% | -0.54% |
Net Income | -4.8% | -9.5% | 6.6% | -51% | 3.7% |
Stockholders Equity | 8.9% | 12% | 3.4% | -2% | 1.7% |
FCF | -8.2% | -17% | -20% | -47% | -6.3% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.23%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.54%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -9.51%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.67%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.09%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.69%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -16.52%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.33%.