Ingredion Inc

INGR

Grain Mill Products

Mkt Cap

$7.645B

PE

11.44

Debt

$1.881B

Cash

$438M

EV

$9.088B

FCF

$1.012B

Market Cap

$7.645B

P/E Ratio

11.44

Debt

$1.881B

Cash

$438M

EV

$9.088B

FCF

$1.012B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":354900000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":402000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":484900000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":519000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":443000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":413000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":348000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":117000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":492000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":643000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":5998000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":5621000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":5704000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":5832000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":5841000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6209000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5987000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6894000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7946000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":8160000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.05916972324108036},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.0715175235723181},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08501051893408135},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0889917695473251},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07584317753809279},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0665163472378805},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.0581259395356606},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.016971279373368148},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06191794613642084},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07879901960784313}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":5091000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":5074000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":5782000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6080000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":5728000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6040000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6858000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6999000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7561000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":7642000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2207000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2180000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2595000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2917000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2408000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2741000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2972000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3118000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3163000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3552000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.16080652469415496},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.18440366972477065},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.18685934489402697},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.17792252314021254},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.18397009966777408},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.15067493615468808},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11709286675639301},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.03752405388069275},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15554852987669934},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.18102477477477477}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.11412296208996268},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.130074891604257},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.13974403320650294},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.13848684210526316},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1227304469273743},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10993377483443709},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.08486439195100612},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.04429204172024575},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10078032006348367},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12522899764459566}]}

Ingredion Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells sweeteners, starches, nutrition ingredients, and biomaterial solutions derived from wet milling and processing corn, and other starch-based materials to a range of industries in North America, South America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers starch products for use in a range of processed foods; cornstarch; specialty paper starches for enhanced drainage, fiber retention, oil and grease resistance, improved printability, and biochemical oxygen demand control; starches and specialty starches for textile industry; industrial starches are used in the production of construction materials, textiles, adhesives, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, as well as in mining and water filtration; and specialty industrial starches for use in biomaterial applications, including biodegradable plastics, fabric softeners and detergents, hair and skin care applications, dusting powders for surgical gloves, and in the production of glass fiber and insulation. It also provides sweetener products comprising glucose syrups, high maltose syrup, high fructose corn syrup, dextrose, polyols, maltodextrin, glucose syrup solids, and non-genetically modified organism syrups for use in food and beverage products, such as baked goods, snack foods, canned fruits, condiments, candy and other sweets, dairy products, ice cream, jams and jellies, prepared mixes, table syrups, soft drinks, fruit-flavored drinks, and others. In addition, the company refined corn oil, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal; and other products, including fruit and vegetable products, such as concentrates, purees, and essences, as well as pulse proteins and hydrocolloids systems and blends. The company was formerly known as Corn Products International, Inc. and changed its name to Ingredion Incorporated in June 2012. Ingredion Incorporated was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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3/31/22
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12/31/19
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6/30/19
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3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Ingredion Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.012B	$994.1M	$976.5M	$959.2M	$942.3M	$925.6M	$909.2M	$893.2M	$877.4M	$861.8M	$846.6M	$8.466B
DCF		$864.4M	$738.4M	$630.7M	$538.7M	$460.2M	$393.1M	$335.8M	$286.8M	$245M	$209.3M	$2.093B
Value	$6.795B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -1.8%

Earnings Stability 0.62%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	7.2%	8.5%	8.9%	7.6%	6.7%	5.8%	1.7%	6.2%	7.9%	8.5%
ROA	13%	14%	14%	12%	11%	8.5%	4.4%	10%	13%	13%
ROE	18%	19%	18%	18%	15%	12%	3.8%	16%	18%	18%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.97%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.11%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.8%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.16%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.76%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.23%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	4.53	4.02	4.36	5.95	5.25	4.47	22.24	-16.78	2.95	1.86
Debt Equity	0.84	0.75	0.68	0.87	0.67	0.74	0.66	0.79	0.62	0.50
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	95%	86%	76%	29%	100%	100%	29%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.86.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.81.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.29.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	5.2%	6.9%	11%	2.7%	1.7%
Net Income	4.1%	7.7%	23%	31%	14%
Stockholders Equity	4.6%	8.1%	6.1%	12%	0.2%
FCF	6.2%	16%	15%	-	-6%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.92%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.66%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.74%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.69%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.08%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.2%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.99%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.97%.