Imperial Oil Ltd

IMO

Petroleum Refining

Mkt Cap

$37.91B

PE

7.84

Debt

$4.127B

Cash

$1.176B

EV

$40.86B

FCF

$3.778B

Market Cap

$37.91B

P/E Ratio

7.84

Debt

$4.127B

Cash

$1.176B

EV

$40.86B

FCF

$3.778B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3785000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1122000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2165000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":490000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2314000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2200000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-1857000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2479000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7340000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4889000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2020-12-30","value":22388000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":37590000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":59670000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":50969000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.08294622118992317},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.06594839052939612},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.12300988771577007},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.0959210500500304}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":40830000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":43170000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":41654000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":41601000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":41456000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":42187000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":38031000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":40782000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":43524000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":41199000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":22530000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":23425000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":25021000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":24435000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":24489000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":24276000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":21418000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":21735000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":22413000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":22222000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1679982245894363},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04789754535752401},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08652731705367492},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.02005320237364436},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09449140430397321},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0906244850881529},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.08670277336819497},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.1140556705774097},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.32748851113193234},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.22000720007200072}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12297330394317904},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04454482279360667},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0586738368464013},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.013990048316146246},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07412678502508684},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04849835257306753},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.06331676789987116},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.0805012015104703},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.21790276628986308},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1545911308526906}]}

Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores for, and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen. The Downstream segment is involved in the transportation and refining of crude oil, blending of refined products, and the distribution and marketing of refined products. It also transports crude oil production and third-party crude oil to refineries by contracted pipelines, common carrier pipelines, and rail; owns and operates refineries; maintains a distribution system to move petroleum products to market by pipeline, tanker, rail, and road transport; owns and operates fuel terminals, natural gas liquids, and products pipelines in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario; markets petroleum products under the Esso and Mobil brands; and sells petroleum products, including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants for industrial and transportation customers, independent marketers, and resellers, as well as other refiners serving the agriculture, residential heating, and commercial markets through branded fuel and lubricant resellers. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets various benzene, aromatic and aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, and polyethylene resin; and markets refinery grade propylene. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Imperial Oil Limited is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Imperial Oil Ltd

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$3.778B	$4.911B	$6.248B	$7.776B	$9.461B	$11.25B	$13.06B	$14.8B	$16.36B	$17.64B	$18.52B	$185.2B
DCF		$4.271B	$4.725B	$5.113B	$5.409B	$5.592B	$5.646B	$5.564B	$5.349B	$5.013B	$4.577B	$45.77B
Value	$97.03B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 23%

Earnings Stability 34%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-	-	-	-	-	-8.3%	6.6%	12%	9.6%	9.5%
ROA	4.5%	5.9%	1.4%	7.4%	4.8%	-6.3%	8.1%	22%	15%	15%
ROE	4.8%	8.7%	2%	9.4%	9.1%	-8.7%	11%	33%	22%	21%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.05%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.94%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.54%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.01%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.67%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +4.4%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-10.30	5.56	2.94	2.13	1.86	-74.06	1.18	0.46	2.12	1.09
Debt Equity	0.36	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.24	0.24	0.19	0.19	0.18
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	21%	100%	100%	-110%	100%	100%	100%	-110%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.09.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 2.03.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.11.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	-	-	32%	-15%	-41%
Net Income	12%	16%	-	-33%	8.3%
Stockholders Equity	-1.7%	-1.9%	1.2%	-0.85%	-0.58%
FCF	11%	-4.3%	-	-78%	-13%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -41.24%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.14%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.25%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -1.92%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.58%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.32%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -12.86%.