Icf International, Inc.

ICFI

Services-Management Consulting Services

Mkt Cap

$2.634B

PE

28.16

Debt

$504.2M

Cash

$4.599M

EV

$3.134B

FCF

$138.1M

Market Cap

$2.634B

P/E Ratio

28.16

Debt

$504.2M

Cash

$4.599M

EV

$3.134B

FCF

$138.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":40030000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":39369000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":46584000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":62876000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":61400000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":68938000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":54959000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":71132000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":64243000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":82612000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1050134000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1132232000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1185097000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1229162000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1337973000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1478525000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1506875000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1553048000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1779964000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1963238000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.038118944820375304},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.034771142310056596},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.03930817477387927},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.051153550142292066},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.045890313182702494},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04662619840719636},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03647216922438822},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.04580154637847639},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.036092302990397555},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.042079462602088995}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1110340000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1083159000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1085571000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1110255000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1213862000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1397217000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1667290000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1849534000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2092258000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2011772000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":500689000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":523276000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":566004000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":616030000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":660417000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":714551000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":746961000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":803470000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":853211000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":917585000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07994982913545134},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07523563090988312},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0823033052769945},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.10206645780237976},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09297156190709809},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09647736830541137},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.07357679985969816},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08853099680137404},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.07529555994941463},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.09003198613752404}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06246915359259326},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06945517694078154},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07735744598925358},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0743423808044098},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.0760152307263923},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.07256782589962761},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.053445411416130365},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05998051401055617},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.051983072833273906},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06577286094050419}]}

ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, business, market, business, communication, and technology challenges. The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage. In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance. Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management. It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Sector

10-Q
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12/31/22
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12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Icf International, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$138.1M	$149M	$160.3M	$171.9M	$183.8M	$195.9M	$208.3M	$220.7M	$233.1M	$245.5M	$257.8M	$2.578B
DCF		$129.6M	$121.2M	$113M	$105.1M	$97.42M	$90.04M	$82.96M	$76.21M	$69.8M	$63.73M	$637.3M
Value	$1.586B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 7.4%

Earnings Stability 70%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	3.5%	3.9%	5.1%	4.6%	4.7%	3.6%	4.6%	3.6%	4.2%	4.7%
ROA	6.9%	7.7%	7.4%	7.6%	7.3%	5.3%	6%	5.2%	6.6%	7%
ROE	7.5%	8.2%	10%	9.3%	9.6%	7.4%	8.9%	7.5%	9%	10%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.22%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.12%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.33%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.3%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +8.61%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.18%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	4.90	3.91	2.01	3.79	2.56	2.10	4.80	4.24	3.54	3.65
Debt Equity	0.60	0.46	0.33	0.30	0.23	0.44	0.54	0.69	0.50	0.55
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	85%	100%	99%	100%	85%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.65.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.19.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.85.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	7.5%	8%	9.2%	10%	0.52%
Net Income	8.5%	6.1%	15%	29%	0.13%
Stockholders Equity	7.1%	6.8%	7.1%	7.5%	0.017%
FCF	10%	20%	-5.8%	-5.6%	2.2%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.97%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.52%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.11%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.13%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.8%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.02%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.73%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.23%.