Hologic Inc
HOLX
X-Ray Apparatus & Tubes & Related Irradiation Apparatus
Mkt Cap
$17.22BPE
37.77Debt
$3.105BCash
$2.756BEV
$17.57BFCF
$901MP/E Ratio
37.77Debt
$3.105BCash
$2.756BEV
$17.57BFCF
$901MHologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load assays for Hepatitis B virus, Hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and human cytomegalovirus; Aptima BV and Aptima CV/TV assays for the diagnosis of vaginitis; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; and Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth. It also offers solutions for breast cancer care primarily in the areas of radiology, breast surgery, pathology, and treatment, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems, image analytics software, reading workstations, ultrasound imaging, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems, breast biopsy site markers, localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions, as well as breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology in the uterus; Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures; and the CoolSeal portfolio that includes bipolar vessel sealing devices. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
Sector
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Hologic Inc
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $901M | $1.025B | $1.156B | $1.292B | $1.432B | $1.573B | $1.713B | $1.848B | $1.977B | $2.095B | $2.199B | $21.99B |
| DCF | $891.1M | $873.8M | $849.5M | $818.7M | $782M | $740.4M | $694.8M | $646.1M | $595.4M | $543.6M | $5.436B | |
| Value | $12.87B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 28%
Earnings Stability 28%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 4.9% | 12% | 25% | -3.5% | -6% | 29% | 33% | 27% | 11% | 11% |
| ROA | 5.9% | 7.8% | 17% | -3.3% | -1.8% | 16% | 28% | 18% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| ROE | 6.3% | 15% | 27% | -4.6% | -9.6% | 41% | 44% | 27% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +15.2%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.03%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +10.62%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.58%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +17.82%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +5.16%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 5.79 | 5.26 | -45.05 | 6.22 | 6.16 | 4.54 | 1.54 | 1.42 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Debt Equity | 1.94 | 1.70 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.24 | 0.79 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | -27% | -63% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 32% | -63% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.45.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.89.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.63.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 09-2016 | 09-2018 | 09-2020 | 09-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | -17% | -1% |
| Net Income | 4.7% | - | -26% | -65% | -62% |
| Stockholders Equity | 13% | 16% | 23% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| FCF | 3.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | -55% | -3% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.61%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.03%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -61.52%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.61%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.31%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.51%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -3%.