Harley-davidson, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Motor Vehicles
www.harley-davidson.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $4.30B
PE 7
Debt $9.86B
Cash $2.41B
EV $11.75B
FCF $769.85M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$586.89M
EBIT	$691.99M
ROE	17%
ROA	5%
FCF	$769.85M
Equity	$3.43B
Growth Stability	0%
PE	7.32
PEG	0.12
PB	1.25
P/FCF	5.58
P/S	0.77
Price/Cash	0.56
Debt/Equity	2.87
Debt/FCF	12.81
Net Margins	13%
Gross Margins	42%
Op. Margins	12%
Earnings CAGR	-1%
Sales Growth YoY	-26%
Sales Growth QoQ	-29%
Sales CAGR	-1%
FCF CAGR	-6%
Equity CAGR	4%
Earnings Stability	0
Earnings Growth YoY	-41%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-46%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	61%

Sales CAGR 5Y	6%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-11%
Equity CAGR 5Y	19%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	3%
Sales CAGR 3Y	3%
FCF CAGR 3Y	2%
Equity CAGR 3Y	13%
Market Cap	$4.30B
Revenue	$5.55B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	16%
Assets	$13.03B
Total Debt	$9.86B
Cash	$2.41B
Shares Outstanding	130.08M
EV	11.75B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	84%
Safety Score	37%
Final Score	42%
Working Capital	1.72B
Current Ratio	1.41
Gross Profit	$2.36B
Shares Growth 3y	-6%
Equity Growth QoQ	-0%
Equity Growth YoY	4%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Harley-Davidson is a global leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, merchandise, parts, and accessories. It sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles and offers a complete line of Harley-Davidson motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, and apparel, as well as merchandise. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley has historically captured about half of all heavyweight domestic retail motorcycle registrations, a metric it had ceded in 2020 as it repositioned the business, but a level it is working back toward. The firm recently expanded into the middleweight market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Harley-davidson, Inc. (HOG) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 25
- 10-Q Jun 26
- 10-Q Mar 27

Sector Comparison

How does Harley-davidson, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Harley-davidson, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR -1%

Stability 0%

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Harley-davidson, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Harley-davidson, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $5.3B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$770M	$726M	$684M	$645M	$608M	$574M	$541M	$510M	$481M	$453M	$427M	$4.3B
DCF		$660M	$566M	$485M	$416M	$356M	$305M	$262M	$224M	$192M	$165M	$1.6B
Value	$5.3B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	14%	13%	12%	9%	9%	8%	0%	12%	13%	12%	13%
ROA	-	12%	11%	9%	7%	5%	0%	7%	8%	7%	5%
ROE	-	41%	36%	28%	30%	23%	0%	25%	25%	21%	17%

Good Net Margins (12.53%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	9.63	8.6	10.17	9.25	13.39	9.56	8.98	19.72	13.7	12.81
Debt over Equity	1.99	4.4	4.11	4.4	5.18	5.1	5.81	3.01	2.69	2.31	2.87
Growth Stability	-	-	-	68%	81%	73%	0%	100%	100%	100%	0%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (12.81)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (2.87)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (0%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-4%	0%	-6%	1%	-6%	-24%	32%	8%	1%	6%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-11%	-8%	-25%	2%	-20%	-100%	50K%	14%	-6%	61%
Equity YoY growth	-	-37%	4%	-4%	-4%	2%	-5%	48%	14%	12%	19%
FCF YoY growth	-	-8%	9%	-13%	24%	-31%	52%	-18%	-54%	38%	-11%