Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Energy
Coal Mining
www.warriormetcoal.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $3.32B
PE 9
Debt $153.46M
Cash $590.64M
EV $2.89B
FCF $50.94M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$378.34M
EBIT	$422.94M
ROE	18%
ROA	16%
FCF	$50.94M
Equity	$2.09B
Growth Stability	-7%
PE	8.78
PEG	0.23
PB	1.59
P/FCF	65.23
P/S	2.09
Price/Cash	0.18
Debt/Equity	0.07
Debt/FCF	3.01
Net Margins	20%
Gross Margins	39%
Op. Margins	27%
Earnings CAGR	0%
Sales Growth YoY	-23%
Sales Growth QoQ	-17%
Sales CAGR	4%
FCF CAGR	-9%
Equity CAGR	21%
Earnings Stability	-0.24
Earnings Growth YoY	-51%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-41%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	38%

Sales CAGR 5Y	16%
FCF CAGR 5Y	20%
Equity CAGR 5Y	30%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	28%
Sales CAGR 3Y	28%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-44%
Equity CAGR 3Y	29%
Market Cap	$3.32B
Revenue	$1.59B
Dividend Yield	1%
Payout Ratio	12%
Assets	$2.58B
Total Debt	$153.46M
Cash	$590.64M
Shares Outstanding	52.17M
EV	2.89B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	95%
Safety Score	62%
Final Score	54%
Working Capital	804.8M
Current Ratio	5.81
Gross Profit	$626.26M
Shares Growth 3y	1%
Equity Growth QoQ	2%
Equity Growth YoY	20%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Warrior Met Coal Inc is a US based company. It produces and exports of met coal that operates two underground mines in Alabama. The company sells to steels manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and South America. Its mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam and other surface met and thermal coal mines.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Warrior Met Coal, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 0%

Stability -24%

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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Warrior Met Coal, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $293M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$51M	$47M	$43M	$39M	$36M	$33M	$30M	$27M	$25M	$23M	$21M	$209M
DCF		$42M	$35M	$29M	$24M	$20M	$17M	$14M	$12M	$9.7M	$8.1M	$81M
Value	$293M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	06/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	05/2022	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-	39%	51%	24%	-5%	14%	-	37%	29%	20%
ROA	-	43%	36%	29%	-2%	17%	-	40%	23%	16%
ROE	-	110%	98%	39%	-5%	17%	-	44%	26%	18%

Good Net Margins (20.32%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	06/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	05/2022	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	1.02	1.03	0.8	15.11	1.16	-	0.48	0.73	3.01
Debt over Equity	-	0.84	0.66	0.44	0.52	0.39	-	0.21	0.08	0.07
Growth Stability	-	-	-	52%	-7%	47%	-	100%	100%	-7%

Neutral Debt/FCF ratio (3.01)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.07)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-7%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	06/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	05/2022	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-	18%	-8%	-38%	35%	-	-	-4%	16%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-	53%	-57%	-112%	-522%	-	-	-25%	38%
Equity YoY growth	-	-	73%	7%	-5%	20%	-	-	29%	30%
FCF YoY growth	-	-	34%	-7%	-94%	1K%	-	-	-67%	20%