Gray Television Inc
GTN
Television Broadcasting Stations
Mkt Cap
$531.1MPE
-59.01Debt
$6.221BCash
$134MEV
$6.618BFCF
$32MP/E Ratio
-59.01Debt
$6.221BCash
$134MEV
$6.618BFCF
$32MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":48061000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":39301000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":62273000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":261952000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":210803000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":127000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":358000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":38000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":403000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-128000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":508134000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":597356000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":812465000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":882728000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1084132000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2122000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2381000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2413000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3676000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3281000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09458331857344716},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06579158826562385},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07664699402435797},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.29675279361252843},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.194444034490265},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05984919886899152},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.15035699286014279},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.015748031496062992},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10963003264417845},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.039012496190185916}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1871580000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2143161000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2783331000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":3260857000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":4213445000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6972000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":7643000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":11108000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":11152000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":10640000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":216192000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":429274000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":492861000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":992897000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1187189000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1464000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1753000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1757000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2116000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1971000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2223070233866193},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.09155224868033005},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1263500256664658},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2638259557637902},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.17756481908103933},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.08674863387978142},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.20422133485453509},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.021627774615822423},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.19045368620037806},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.06494165398274987}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08216213039250259},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06539872646058789},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0841218669285112},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0893096508065211},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09357615917616108},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06913367756741251},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09839068428627502},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.034299603889088946},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.08877331420373027},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.03599624060150376}]}
Gray Television, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services, including CW Plus Network, MY Network, the MeTV Network, Circle, Antenna TV, Telemundo, and Cozi; and local news/weather channels in various markets. In addition, the company offers video program production services. It owns and operates television stations and digital assets that serve television markets in the United States. The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Gray Television, Inc. in August 2002. Gray Television, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Gray Television Inc
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $32M | $35.7M | $39.57M | $43.57M | $47.66M | $51.78M | $55.88M | $59.9M | $63.76M | $67.42M | $70.79M | $707.9M |
| DCF | $31.04M | $29.92M | $28.65M | $27.25M | $25.74M | $24.16M | $22.52M | $20.84M | $19.16M | $17.5M | $175M | |
| Value | $421.8M | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 16%
Earnings Stability 25%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 6.6% | 7.7% | 30% | 19% | 6% | 15% | 1.6% | 11% | -3.9% | -0.27% |
| ROA | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| ROE | 9.2% | 13% | 26% | 18% | 8.7% | 20% | 2.2% | 19% | -6.5% | -0.44% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.18%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.29%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.84%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +10.26%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -3.1%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 15.18 | 11.04 | 12.83 | 10.14 | 13.67 | 7.44 | 73.66 | 16.63 | 20.75 | 194.41 |
| Debt Equity | 2.88 | 3.65 | 1.88 | 2.16 | 2.57 | 2.30 | 3.90 | 3.09 | 3.16 | 3.03 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 71% | 100% | 16% | 100% | -48% | -48% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 194.41.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 3.66.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.48.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22% | 25% | 11% | -11% | -1.5% |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | 68% |
| Stockholders Equity | 22% | 11% | 4% | -6.9% | -10% |
| FCF | 9.1% | 3.4% | -18% | -24% | 8.9% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.79%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.49%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +67.57%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.67%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -10.12%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.44%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.86%.