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Green Brick Partners, Inc.

GRBK

Operative Builders

Mkt Cap

$2.532B

PE

8.99

Debt

$350.5M

Cash

$199.5M

EV

$2.683B

FCF

$205.5M

Market Cap

$2.532B

P/E Ratio

8.99

Debt

$350.5M

Cash

$199.5M

EV

$2.683B

FCF

$205.5M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":50026000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":15325000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":23756000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":14970000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":51623000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":58656000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":113693000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":190139000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":289025000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":281751000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":246102000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":291145000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":380328000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":454374000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":623647000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":791660000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":976021000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1402876000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1757793000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1777710000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.203273439468188},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.05263700218104381},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.062461875013146546},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.032946427392412415},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08277599347066529},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.07409241340979714},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11648622314478889},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.13553514351945575},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.16442493513172485},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1584909799686113}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":400325000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":473876000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":540984000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":612230000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":784026000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":875539000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":988847000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1421867000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1655675000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1902832000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":181597000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":371855000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":401485000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":433038000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":485632000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":536395000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":649409000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":888694000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1082815000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1318013000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.275478119131924},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.041212300493471916},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.059170330149320646},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.03456971443614648},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10630065564048498},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10935224974132869},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.17507148807608147},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.21395328425757348},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2669200186550796},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.21376951517170165}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09044901017922938},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07325967130641771},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09344823506795025},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.10492298645933718},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10416873930201294},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09631666893193792},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.14442375817492495},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.18073842349530583},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2394582270071119},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.20564768723670823}]}

Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities. It owns or controls home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Austin, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market. The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors. Green Brick Partners, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

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Growth

%

%

Discount

%

%

Multiple

g\r+10%+11%+12%+13%+14%
0%109887
+1%1110988
+2%13111098
+3%141311109
+4%1714121110
Years012345678910TV
FCF$205.5M$267.2M$339.9M$423M$514.7M$611.9M$710.5M$805.2M$890.2M$959.5M$1.007B$10.07B
DCF$232.3M$257M$278.2M$294.3M$304.2M$307.2M$302.7M$291M$272.7M$249M$2.49B
Value$5.279B

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 43%
Earnings Stability 81%


Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Net Margin5.3%6.2%3.3%8.3%7.4%12%14%16%16%16%
ROA7.3%9.3%10%10%9.6%14%18%24%21%21%
ROE4.1%5.9%3.5%11%11%18%21%27%21%21%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +12.2%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.91%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +16.18%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.78%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +18.09%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3%.


Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
Debt FCF-1.20-11.44-6.17--9.786.84-3.604.191.711.71
Debt Equity0.160.210.27-0.450.340.380.340.270.27
MIN
Graham Stability--50%100%100%100%100%100%100%50%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.71.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 2.03.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.50.


Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years12-201612-201812-202012-2022Trend
Revenue25%23%22%1.1%-0.84%
Net Income42%40%35%-2.5%5.3%
Stockholders Equity19%22%27%22%-3.7%
FCF--85%130%-

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +23.31%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.84%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +40.41%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.26%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +22.1%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.73%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.