Industrial Organic Chemicals
Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces ethanol, distillers grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. It operates 27 ethanol storage facilities; 2 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,500 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Green Plains Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $25.42M | $26.38M | $27.37M | $28.41M | $29.48M | $30.59M | $31.75M | $32.95M | $34.19M | $35.48M | $36.82M | $368.2M |
DCF | $22.94M | $20.7M | $18.68M | $16.86M | $15.21M | $13.73M | $12.39M | $11.18M | $10.09M | $9.102M | $91.02M | |
Value | $241.9M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 0.24% | 0.31% | 1.7% | 0.41% | -6.9% | -5.7% | -2.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.4% |
ROA | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 5.2% | -7.8% | -7.7% | 1.2% | -3.1% | -2.3% | -1.9% |
ROE | 0.74% | 1.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% | -19% | -14% | -6% | -12% | -9.4% | -8.3% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.46%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.08%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is -2.42%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.42%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is -9.87%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.71%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | -12.96 | 47.31 | 8778.31 | -177.22 | -7.31 | -48.93 | -4.00 | -4.50 | -11.69 | 24.66 |
Debt Equity | 0.72 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 0.87 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 61% | -570% | - | - | - | - | -570% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 24.66.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 25.17.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -5.71.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | -0.49% | -3% | 20% | -10% | 1.5% |
Net Income | - | - | - | - | 49% |
Stockholders Equity | 0.16% | -1.4% | 8.4% | -6.7% | -1.1% |
FCF | - | - | - | - | - |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.03%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.54%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +48.66%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -1.41%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.14%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +58.21%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.