Green Plains Inc.

Industrials
Major Chemicals
www.gpreinc.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $236.05M
PE -3
Debt $578.62M
Cash $209.40M
EV $605.27M
FCF -$125.05M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$82.50M
EBIT	-$47.46M
ROE	-9%
ROA	-3%
FCF	-$125.05M
Equity	$874.54M
Growth Stability	-571%
PE	-2.86
PB	0.27
P/FCF	-1.89
P/S	0.1
Price/Cash	0.89
Debt/Equity	0.66
Debt/FCF	-4.63
Net Margins	-3%
Gross Margins	5%
Op. Margins	-2%
Earnings CAGR	0%
Sales Growth YoY	-18%
Sales Growth QoQ	-11%
Sales CAGR	-2%
FCF CAGR	1%
Equity CAGR	0%
Earnings Stability	0
Earnings Growth YoY	-860%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-214%

Sales CAGR 5Y	10%
Equity CAGR 5Y	1%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-10%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-10%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-7%
Market Cap	$236.05M
Revenue	$2.46B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	-6%
Assets	$1.78B
Total Debt	$578.62M
Cash	$209.40M
Shares Outstanding	63.8M
EV	605.27M
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	10%
Safety Score	35%
Final Score	17%
Working Capital	183.35M
Current Ratio	1.48
Gross Profit	$130.45M
Shares Growth 3y	8%
Equity Growth QoQ	-7%
Equity Growth YoY	-12%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Green Plains Inc manufactures and sells ethanol and ethanol byproducts in four segments based on function. The ethanol production segment, which generates the majority of revenue, includes the production of ethanol, grains, and corn oil. The agribusiness and energy services segment includes the grain procurement and commodity marketing business, which markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distillers grains, and corn oil. The food and ingredients segment includes cattle feeding operations. The partnership segment provides fuel storage and transportation services.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Green Plains Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Green Plains Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 0%

Stability 0%

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Green Plains Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Green Plains Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= -$1.3B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$125M	-$126M	-$127M	-$128M	-$129M	-$130M	-$131M	-$132M	-$133M	-$134M	-$135M	-$1.3B
DCF		-$115M	-$105M	-$96M	-$88M	-$81M	-$74M	-$68M	-$62M	-$57M	-$52M	-$519M
Value	-$1.3B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	0%	0%	2%	0%	-7%	-6%	-2%	-3%	-3%	-3%	-3%
ROA	-	4%	1%	5%	-8%	-8%	1%	-3%	-2%	-3%	-3%
ROE	-	1%	6%	1%	-19%	-14%	-6%	-12%	-9%	-9%	-9%

Bad Net Margins (-3.36%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	47.31	8.78K	-177.22	-7.31	-48.93	-4	-4.5	-11.69	-4.63	-4.63
Debt over Equity	0.72	1.2	1.33	0.87	0.72	0.74	0.66	0.6	0.61	0.66	0.66
Growth Stability	-	-	-	61%	-571%	-	-	-	-	-	-571%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-4.63)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.66)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-571%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	15%	5%	7%	-37%	-20%	47%	30%	-10%	-25%	10%
Earnings YoY growth	-	51%	473%	-74%	-1K%	-35%	-39%	93%	-27%	-12%	-
Equity YoY growth	-	2%	8%	0%	-19%	-10%	42%	-4%	-7%	-12%	1%
FCF YoY growth	-	-147%	-99%	-3K%	2K%	-86%	1K%	-22%	-64%	142%	-