Graphic Packaging Holding Co

Consumer Discretionary
Containers/Packaging
www.graphicpkg.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $8.86B
PE 12
Debt $5.40B
Cash $126.00M
EV $14.14B
FCF -$282.00M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$716.00M
EBIT	$1.17B
ROE	24%
ROA	10%
FCF	-$282.00M
Equity	$3.01B
Growth Stability	69%
PE	12.38
PEG	0.24
PB	2.94
P/FCF	-31.43
P/S	0.99
Price/Cash	0.01
Debt/Equity	1.79
Debt/FCF	-19.16
Net Margins	8%
Gross Margins	22%
Op. Margins	13%
Earnings CAGR	13%
Sales Growth YoY	-6%
Sales Growth QoQ	-1%
Sales CAGR	11%
FCF CAGR	-1%
Equity CAGR	11%
Earnings Stability	0.4
Earnings Growth YoY	-3%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-13%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	52%

Sales CAGR 5Y	12%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-4%
Equity CAGR 5Y	10%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	7%
Sales CAGR 3Y	7%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-48%
Equity CAGR 3Y	21%
Market Cap	$8.86B
Revenue	$8.96B
Dividend Yield	1%
Payout Ratio	17%
Assets	$11.23B
Total Debt	$5.40B
Cash	$126.00M
Shares Outstanding	300.14M
EV	14.14B
Earnings Score	36%
Moat Score	92%
Safety Score	61%
Final Score	63%
Working Capital	1.26B
Current Ratio	1.73
Gross Profit	$2.01B
Shares Growth 3y	-0%
Equity Growth QoQ	7%
Equity Growth YoY	18%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Graphic Packaging Holding Co is a holding company that manufactures and sells a variety of paper-based consumer packaging products through its subsidiaries. The company's two primary functions include the sale of paperboard packaging and the operation of paperboard mills. The paperboard packaging business includes packaging for beverages, including beer and soft drinks as well as food, including cereal, frozen foods, and pet foods. The firm also sells paperboard packaging for household products, including dishwasher and laundry detergent and personal care products. Graphic Packaging operates papermills that sell laminated and coated packaging products to third parties. The majority of revenue comes from the Americas.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Graphic Packaging Holding Co compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Graphic Packaging Holding Co compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 13%

Stability 40%

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Graphic Packaging Holding Co Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Graphic Packaging Holding Co.

Years

Calculation mode

= -$2.6B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$282M	-$279M	-$276M	-$273M	-$271M	-$268M	-$265M	-$262M	-$260M	-$257M	-$254M	-$2.5B
DCF		-$254M	-$228M	-$205M	-$185M	-$166M	-$150M	-$135M	-$121M	-$109M	-$98M	-$981M
Value	-$2.6B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	2%	6%	5%	7%	4%	3%	3%	3%	6%	8%	8%
ROA	-	10%	9%	7%	7%	7%	7%	4%	9%	11%	10%
ROE	-	21%	22%	23%	11%	10%	9%	11%	24%	26%	24%

Net Margins (7.75%)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	5.54	6	8.39	-3.93	8.54	19.28	-35.87	9.25	16.48	-19.16
Debt over Equity	1.98	1.74	2.06	1.79	1.46	1.39	2.19	3.15	2.44	2.15	1.79
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	87%	83%	69%	100%	100%	100%	69%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-19.16)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (1.79)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (69%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-2%	3%	2%	37%	2%	6%	9%	32%	-0%	12%
Earnings YoY growth	-	159%	-1%	32%	-26%	-6%	-19%	22%	156%	39%	52%
Equity YoY growth	-	9%	-4%	22%	56%	2%	-11%	3%	14%	29%	10%
FCF YoY growth	-	6%	5%	-24%	-373%	-144%	-38%	-180%	-442%	-36%	-4%