Graphic Packaging Holding Co

Consumer Discretionary
Containers/Packaging
www.graphicpkg.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $6.66B
PE 11
Debt $5.71B
Cash $129.00M
EV $12.24B
FCF -$491.00M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$620.00M
EBIT	$1.06B
ROE	20%
ROA	9%
FCF	-$491.00M
Equity	$3.16B
Growth Stability	69%
PE	10.74
PEG	0.22
PB	2.11
P/FCF	-13.56
P/S	0.77
Price/Cash	0.02
Debt/Equity	1.81
Debt/FCF	-11.63
Net Margins	6%
Gross Margins	22%
Op. Margins	12%
Earnings CAGR	16%
Sales Growth YoY	-6%
Sales Growth QoQ	1%
Sales CAGR	11%
FCF CAGR	-0%
Equity CAGR	11%
Earnings Stability	0.48
Earnings Growth YoY	-23%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-8%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	49%

Sales CAGR 5Y	10%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-1%
Equity CAGR 5Y	14%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-1%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-1%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-13%
Equity CAGR 3Y	21%
Market Cap	$6.66B
Revenue	$8.67B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	20%
Assets	$11.50B
Total Debt	$5.71B
Cash	$129.00M
Shares Outstanding	301.75M
EV	12.24B
Earnings Score	67%
Moat Score	89%
Safety Score	60%
Final Score	72%
Working Capital	1.38B
Current Ratio	1.88
Gross Profit	$1.88B
Shares Growth 3y	-1%
Equity Growth QoQ	5%
Equity Growth YoY	10%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Graphic Packaging Holding Co is a holding company that manufactures and sells a variety of paper-based consumer packaging products through its subsidiaries. The company's two primary functions include the sale of paperboard packaging and the operation of paperboard mills. The paperboard packaging business includes packaging for beverages, including beer and soft drinks as well as food, including cereal, frozen foods, and pet foods. The firm also sells paperboard packaging for household products, including dishwasher and laundry detergent and personal care products. Graphic Packaging operates papermills that sell laminated and coated packaging products to third parties. The majority of revenue comes from the Americas.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2025
- 10-Q Mar 31
2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Graphic Packaging Holding Co compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Graphic Packaging Holding Co compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 16%

Stability 48%

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Graphic Packaging Holding Co Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Graphic Packaging Holding Co.

Years

Calculation mode

= -$4.8B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$491M	-$489M	-$486M	-$484M	-$482M	-$479M	-$477M	-$475M	-$473M	-$470M	-$468M	-$4.7B
DCF		-$444M	-$402M	-$364M	-$329M	-$298M	-$269M	-$244M	-$221M	-$200M	-$181M	-$1.8B
Value	-$4.8B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	6%	5%	7%	4%	3%	3%	3%	6%	8%	7%	6%
ROA	-	9%	7%	7%	7%	7%	4%	9%	11%	10%	9%
ROE	-	22%	23%	11%	10%	9%	11%	24%	26%	22%	20%

Bad Net Margins (5.99%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	6	8.39	-3.93	8.54	19.28	-35.87	9.25	16.48	-15.76	-11.63
Debt over Equity	1.74	2.06	1.79	1.46	1.39	2.19	3.15	2.44	2.15	1.72	1.81
Growth Stability	-	-	-	87%	83%	69%	100%	100%	100%	100%	69%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-11.63)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (1.81)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (69%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	3%	2%	37%	2%	6%	9%	32%	-0%	-7%	10%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-1%	32%	-26%	-6%	-19%	22%	156%	39%	-9%	49%
Equity YoY growth	-	-4%	22%	56%	2%	-11%	3%	14%	29%	8%	14%
FCF YoY growth	-	5%	-24%	-373%	-144%	-38%	-180%	-442%	-36%	-191%	-1%