Graphic Packaging Holding Co
GPK
Paperboard Containers & Boxes
Mkt Cap
$8.491BPE
12.47Debt
$6.304BCash
$136MEV
$14.66BFCF
$171MP/E Ratio
12.47Debt
$6.304BCash
$136MEV
$14.66BFCF
$171MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":89000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":230100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":228000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":300200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":221100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":206800000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":167300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":204000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":522000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":723000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":4240500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4160200000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":4298100000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":4403700000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":6023000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":6160100000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6559900000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":7156000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":9440000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":9428000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.020988091027001533},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.05530984087303495},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05304669505130174},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06816994799827418},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.036709281089158226},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.03357088358955212},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.025503437552401715},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.02850754611514813},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.05529661016949153},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07668646584641493}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":4331300000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4256100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":4603400000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":4863000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7059200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":7289900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":7804600000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":10457000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":10328000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":11175000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1012300000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1101700000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1056500000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1291900000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2018500000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2058000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1840300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1893000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2150000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2782000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08791860120517633},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.2088590360352183},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.21580690960719356},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.23237092654230204},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10953678474114441},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10048590864917395},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09090909090909091},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.10776545166402536},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2427906976744186},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.25988497483824585}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.05259390944981876},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.10035008575926317},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08602337402789242},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.07047090273493728},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.06674977334542158},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.07326575124487304},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06717833072803218},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.03939944534761404},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.08840046475600309},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10505592841163311}]}
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the United States, Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Sector
![PKG Logo](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='18' height='18'><defs><linearGradient id="a" x1="3.349" x2="21.904" y1="3.122" y2="24.434" gradientUnits="userSpaceOnUse"><stop stop-color="%231A1E21"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="%2306060A"/></linearGradient></defs><path fill="url(%23a)" d="M0 0h18v18H0z"/><text x='50%' y='52%' dominant-baseline='middle' text-anchor='middle' font-size='5' font-family='sans-serif' fill='gray'>PKG</text></svg>){kind=small}
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Graphic Packaging Holding Co
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $171M | $172.8M | $174.5M | $176.3M | $178.2M | $180M | $181.9M | $183.7M | $185.6M | $187.5M | $189.5M | $1.895B |
| DCF | $150.2M | $132M | $116M | $101.9M | $89.49M | $78.62M | $69.07M | $60.68M | $53.31M | $46.84M | $468.4M | |
| Value | $1.366B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 11%
Earnings Stability 31%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| ROA | 10% | 8.6% | 7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 11% | 9.9% |
| ROE | 21% | 22% | 23% | 11% | 10% | 9.1% | 11% | 24% | 26% | 24% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.27%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.77%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.33%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.6%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.19%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3.42%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 5.54 | 6.00 | 8.39 | -3.93 | 8.54 | 19.28 | -35.87 | 9.25 | 16.48 | 36.87 |
| Debt Equity | 1.74 | 2.06 | 1.79 | 1.46 | 1.39 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 2.44 | 2.15 | 2.21 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 87% | 83% | 69% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 69% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 36.87.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.40.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.69.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12% | 9.4% | 13% | -0.13% | 1.3% |
| Net Income | 18% | 27% | 63% | 39% | -0.37% |
| Stockholders Equity | 15% | 6.6% | 15% | 29% | 0.49% |
| FCF | 0.0079% | - | 20% | -36% | -5.7% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.38%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.26%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +26.74%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.37%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.63%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.49%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.68%.