Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

Consumer Staples
Food Chains
www.groceryoutlet.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $1.59B
PE 40
Debt $493.75M
Cash $62.83M
EV $2.02B
FCF -$94.95M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$39.47M
EBIT	$78.33M
ROE	3%
ROA	2%
FCF	-$94.95M
Equity	$1.20B
Growth Stability	57%
PE	40.28
PEG	-9.12
PB	1.33
P/FCF	-16.74
P/S	0.36
Price/Cash	0.04
Debt/Equity	0.41
Debt/FCF	-5.2
Net Margins	1%
Gross Margins	30%
Op. Margins	2%
Earnings CAGR	30%
Sales Growth YoY	11%
Sales Growth QoQ	-1%
Sales CAGR	11%
FCF CAGR	8%
Equity CAGR	19%
Earnings Stability	-0.14
Earnings Growth YoY	-84%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-90%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	-4%

Sales CAGR 5Y	10%
FCF CAGR 5Y	7%
Equity CAGR 5Y	9%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	12%
Sales CAGR 3Y	12%
FCF CAGR 3Y	2%
Equity CAGR 3Y	7%
Market Cap	$1.59B
Revenue	$4.37B
Dividend Yield	0%
Payout Ratio	0%
Assets	$3.17B
Total Debt	$493.75M
Cash	$62.83M
Shares Outstanding	97.26M
EV	2.02B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	35%
Safety Score	52%
Final Score	31%
Working Capital	154.27M
Current Ratio	1.44
Gross Profit	$1.32B
Shares Growth 3y	1%
Equity Growth QoQ	-2%
Equity Growth YoY	-2%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is a grocery store operator in the United States. Its flexible buying model allows them to offer quality, name-brand opportunistic products at prices generally 40% to 70% below those of conventional retailers. The stores are run by Entrepreneurial independent operators which create a neighborhood feel through personalized customer service and a localized product offering.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 28
- 10-Q Sep 28
- 10-Q Jun 29
- 10-Q Mar 30
2023
- 10-K Dec 30
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jul 01
- 10-Q Apr 01
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Oct 01
- 10-Q Jul 02
- 10-Q Apr 02
- 10-K Jan 01

Sector Comparison

How does Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 30%

Stability -14%

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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp..

Years

Calculation mode

= -$1.6B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$95M	-$102M	-$110M	-$118M	-$127M	-$137M	-$147M	-$159M	-$171M	-$184M	-$198M	-$2B
DCF		-$93M	-$91M	-$89M	-$87M	-$85M	-$83M	-$81M	-$80M	-$78M	-$76M	-$762M
Value	-$1.6B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	1%	1%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%
ROA	-	6%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	2%	2%
ROE	-	5%	2%	12%	6%	6%	7%	3%	3%

Bad Net Margins (0.9%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	21.07	12.93	8.17	10.9	10.01	2.69	-5.2	-5.2
Debt over Equity	-	2.88	0.62	0.5	0.46	0.35	0.25	0.41	0.41
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	57%	57%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-5.2)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.41)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (57%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	10%	12%	22%	-2%	16%	11%	10%	10%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-23%	-3%	592%	-42%	4%	22%	-50%	-4%
Equity YoY growth	-	-30%	149%	24%	9%	10%	10%	-2%	9%
FCF YoY growth	-	201%	-13%	58%	-25%	-9%	190%	-185%	7%