Guess Inc

GES

Women's, Misses': Children's & Infants' Undergarments

Mkt Cap

$1.275B

PE

6.51

Debt

$68.99M

Cash

$360.3M

EV

$984M

FCF

$256.2M

Market Cap

$1.275B

P/E Ratio

6.51

Debt

$68.99M

Cash

$360.3M

EV

$984M

FCF

$256.2M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":93908000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":81319000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":22234000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":-8658000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":13343000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":95125000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-81410000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":169532000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":148205000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":195830000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":2417673000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":2204311000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":2209368000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":2363754000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":2609694000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":2678109000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":1876529000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":2591631000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":2687350000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":2776530000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.03884230828569455},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.03689089243759161},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.0100635113751987},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":-0.003662817704380405},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.005112859975154175},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.03551946541384238},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.043383289040563724},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.06541517677478005},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.05514912460230338},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.07053048229264586}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":1601405000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":1538748000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":1534485000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":1655634000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":1649205000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":2428962000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":2465868000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":2555628000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":2425448000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":2590021000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":1089446000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":1031293000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":980994000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":933475000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":853645000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":661347000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":565580000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":653643000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":572751000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":734794000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.08619793913603795},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.07885150001018139},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.022664766553108378},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":-0.009275020755778142},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.015630619285534386},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.14383523324366784},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.14394073340641467},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.25936482146982376},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.258759914867019},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.2665100694888635}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.08930158204826387},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.08271594829042832},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.034936802901299135},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.042443559385709644},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":0.03165889019254732},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.057914039001021836},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":-0.024533754442654675},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.11935892078189783},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.102320478526029},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":0.10165052715788792}]}

Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children. It operates through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing. The company's clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, activewear, knitwear, and intimate apparel. It also grants licenses to design, manufacture, and distribute various products that complement its apparel lines, such as eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories, as well as to wholesale partners to operate and sell products through licensed retail stores. The company markets its products under the GUESS, GUESS?, GUESS U.S.A., GUESS Jeans, GUESS? and Triangle Design, MARCIANO, Question Mark and Triangle Design, a stylized G and a stylized M, GUESS Kids, Baby GUESS, YES, G by GUESS, GUESS by MARCIANO, and Gc brand names. It sells its products through direct-to-consumer, wholesale, and licensing distribution channels. The company also offers its products through its retail websites. Guess?, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

Sector

10-Q
10/28/23
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7/29/23
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10-K
1/28/23
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5/4/19
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2/2/19
10-Q
11/3/18
10-Q
8/4/18
10-Q
5/5/18
10-K
2/3/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Guess Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$256.2M	$289.9M	$325.5M	$362.5M	$400.4M	$438.6M	$476.5M	$513.3M	$548.3M	$580.7M	$609.8M	$6.098B
DCF		$252.1M	$246.1M	$238.4M	$228.9M	$218.1M	$206M	$193M	$179.3M	$165.1M	$150.7M	$1.507B
Value	$3.585B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 23%

Earnings Stability -3.3%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Net Margin	3.7%	1%	-0.37%	0.51%	3.6%	-4.3%	6.5%	5.5%	7.1%	7.1%
ROA	8.3%	3.5%	4.2%	3.2%	5.8%	-2.5%	12%	10%	10%	10%
ROE	7.9%	2.3%	-0.93%	1.6%	14%	-14%	26%	26%	27%	27%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.14%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.41%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.47%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.79%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.34%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +5.72%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Debt FCF	0.07	-1.31	0.66	-1.49	2.27	1.56	1.53	1.71	0.27	0.27
Debt Equity	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.47	0.53	0.16	0.24	0.09	0.09
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-13%	42%	100%	-240%	100%	100%	100%	-240%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.27.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.20.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -2.45.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	01-2017	02-2019	01-2021	01-2023	Trend
Revenue	3.3%	1.2%	14%	3.3%	1.3%
Net Income	36%	71%	-	32%	7.2%
Stockholders Equity	-4%	-3%	9.1%	28%	2.4%
FCF	-	-	10%	220%	13%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.25%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.35%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +71.13%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +7.25%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.95%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.45%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.05%.