Geo Group Inc

Consumer Discretionary
Homebuilding
www.geogroup.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $3.69B
PE 102
Debt $1.69B
Cash $118.40M
EV $5.26B
FCF $198.64M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$36.09M
EBIT	$324.40M
ROE	3%
ROA	9%
FCF	$198.64M
Equity	$1.32B
Growth Stability	50%
PE	102.12
PEG	-5.25
PB	2.8
P/FCF	18.55
P/S	1.52
Price/Cash	0.03
Debt/Equity	1.29
Debt/FCF	8.53
Net Margins	1%
Op. Margins	13%
Earnings CAGR	-10%
Sales Growth YoY	0%
Sales Growth QoQ	-1%
Sales CAGR	2%
FCF CAGR	-2%
Equity CAGR	2%
Earnings Stability	0.45
Earnings Growth YoY	23%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-187%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	-19%
Sales CAGR 5Y	0%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-9%
Equity CAGR 5Y	9%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	3%
Sales CAGR 3Y	3%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-3%
Equity CAGR 3Y	11%
Market Cap	$3.69B
Revenue	$2.42B
Assets	$3.63B
Total Debt	$1.69B
Cash	$118.40M
Shares Outstanding	129.68M
EV	5.26B
Earnings Score	3%
Moat Score	54%
Safety Score	53%
Final Score	37%
Working Capital	42.86M
Current Ratio	1.1
Shares Growth 3y	2%
Equity Growth QoQ	3%
Equity Growth YoY	4%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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The GEO Group Inc. is a real estate investment trust specializing in detention facilities and community-reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which primarily encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Geo Group Inc (GEO) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Geo Group Inc compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Geo Group Inc compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR -10%

Stability 45%

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Geo Group Inc Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Geo Group Inc.

Years

Calculation mode

= $1.7B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$199M	$195M	$191M	$188M	$184M	$181M	$177M	$174M	$171M	$167M	$164M	$1.6B
DCF		$177M	$158M	$141M	$126M	$112M	$100M	$89M	$80M	$71M	$63M	$633M
Value	$1.7B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	9%	8%	7%	6%	6%	7%	5%	3%	6%	4%	1%
ROA	-	7%	7%	7%	7%	8%	6%	7%	10%	10%	9%
ROE	-	14%	15%	12%	14%	17%	12%	7%	12%	7%	3%

Bad Net Margins (0.83%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	-24.61	11.39	39.5	12.65	8.9	14	10.13	8.93	8.53
Debt over Equity	1.57	2.14	2.77	2.21	2.99	2.8	3.24	3.06	1.79	1.47	1.29
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	74%	50%	100%	82%	50%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (8.53)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Neutral Debt/Equity ratio (1.29)

The company has a balance between equity and debt that is not too good nor too bad.

Bad Graham’s Stability (50%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	9%	18%	4%	3%	6%	-5%	-4%	5%	2%	0%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-3%	7%	-2%	-1%	15%	-32%	-38%	102%	-37%	-19%
Equity YoY growth	-	-4%	-3%	23%	-13%	-4%	-8%	7%	19%	11%	9%
FCF YoY growth	-	-	-546%	-312%	-66%	180%	51%	-36%	-3%	3%	-9%