Ship & Boat Building & Repairing
General Dynamics Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Aerospace, Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies. The Aerospace segment produces and sells business jets; and offers aircraft maintenance and repair, management, aircraft-on-ground support and completion, charter, staffing, and fixed-base operator services. The Marine Systems segment designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary ships for the United States Navy and Jones Act ships for commercial customers, as well as builds crude oil and product tankers, and container and cargo ships; provides maintenance, modernization, and lifecycle support services for navy ships; offers and program management, planning, engineering, and design support services for submarine construction programs. The Combat Systems segment manufactures land combat solutions, such as wheeled and tracked combat vehicles, Stryker wheeled combat vehicles, piranha vehicles, weapons systems, munitions, mobile bridge systems with payloads, tactical vehicles, main battle tanks, armored vehicles, and armaments; and offers modernization programs, engineering, support, and sustainment services. The Technologies segment provides information technology solutions and mission support services; mobile communication, computers, and command-and-control mission systems; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions to military, intelligence, and federal civilian customers; cloud computing, artificial intelligence; machine learning; big data analytics; development, security, and operations; and unmanned undersea vehicle manufacturing and assembly services. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of General Dynamics Corp
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $3.089B | $3.317B | $3.553B | $3.797B | $4.047B | $4.303B | $4.564B | $4.829B | $5.096B | $5.364B | $5.632B | $56.32B |
DCF | $2.885B | $2.687B | $2.497B | $2.314B | $2.14B | $1.973B | $1.815B | $1.666B | $1.525B | $1.392B | $13.92B | |
Value | $34.82B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8% |
ROA | 11% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
ROE | 21% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 29% | 26% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 17% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.82%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.2%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.35%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.71%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +22.76%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -2.05%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 1.34 | 1.93 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 5.49 | 7.48 | 5.58 | 3.73 | 3.42 | 3.00 |
Debt Equity | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.03 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.46 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 98% | 100% | 98% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.00.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.12.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.98.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 3.3% | 4.9% | 0.048% | 2.4% | 0.27% |
Net Income | 1.9% | 3.1% | -0.91% | 4.1% | -1.1% |
Stockholders Equity | 8.1% | 10% | 11% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
FCF | 7.9% | 0.081% | 20% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.93%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.27%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.09%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.13%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.18%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.3%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.08%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.37%.