Retail-Shoe Stores
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children. Its Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. Its Genesco Brands Group segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and G.H. Bass brands for men, women, and children, as well as designs and manufactures the STARTER brands footwear. The company operates through Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy brand names; and e-commerce websites, including journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, johnstonmurphy.com, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.ca, nashvilleshoewarehouse.com, and dockersshoes.com. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Genesco Inc
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $34.49M | $40.04M | $46M | $52.26M | $58.74M | $65.3M | $71.78M | $78.03M | $83.85M | $89.08M | $93.53M | $935.3M |
DCF | $34.82M | $34.78M | $34.36M | $33.59M | $32.47M | $31.03M | $29.33M | $27.41M | $25.32M | $23.12M | $231.2M | |
Value | $537.4M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 01-2016 | 01-2017 | 02-2018 | 02-2019 | 01-2020 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 01-2023 | 02-2024 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 3.1% | 3.4% | -3.8% | -2.4% | 2.8% | -3.2% | 4.7% | 3% | -0.72% | -0.72% |
ROA | 10% | 11% | -7.3% | 7% | 5.1% | -6.7% | 10% | 6.4% | -1% | -1% |
ROE | 9.9% | 11% | -13% | -7% | 9.9% | -10% | 19% | 12% | -2.9% | -2.9% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.72%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.48%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +3.45%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.55%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +3.48%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.58%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 01-2016 | 01-2017 | 02-2018 | 02-2019 | 01-2020 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 01-2023 | 02-2024 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 2.84 | 1.36 | 2.45 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.08 | -0.20 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
Debt Equity | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | -120% | -190% | - | - | - | 100% | -39% | -190% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.01.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.05.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.94.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 01-2017 | 02-2019 | 01-2021 | 01-2023 | Trend |
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Revenue | -3% | 1.2% | 9.2% | -2.5% | 0.87% |
Net Income | - | - | - | - | -5.5% |
Stockholders Equity | -6.6% | -5% | 0.26% | -5.9% | 0.69% |
FCF | -9.2% | -28% | -36% | - | 9.3% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.21%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.87%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -20.18%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.53%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.98%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.69%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -28.13%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +9.28%.