Greenbrier Companies Inc

GBX

Railroad Equipment

Mkt Cap

$1.622B

PE

14.65

Debt

$1.44B

Cash

$272M

EV

$2.79B

FCF

-$160.9M

Market Cap

$1.622B

P/E Ratio

14.65

Debt

$1.44B

Cash

$272M

EV

$2.79B

FCF

-$160.9M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":111919000},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":192832000},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":183213000},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":116067000},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":151781000},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":71076000},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":48967000},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":32477000},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":46900000},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":62500000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":2203962000},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":2605278000},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":2679524000},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":2169164000},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":2519464000},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":3033591000},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":2792189000},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":1747981000},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":2977700000},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":3944000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":0.05078082108493703},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":0.07401590156597491},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":0.06837520395413514},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":0.05350771080471555},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":0.060243369224565226},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":0.02342965811805217},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":0.01753713663365911},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":0.01857972140429444},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":0.01575041139134231},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":0.01584685598377282}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":1517168000},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":1790512000},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":1837890000},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":2397705000},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":2465464000},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":2990637000},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":3173834000},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":3390668000},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":3851500000},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":3978400000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":573721000},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":863489000},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":1016827000},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":1178893000},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":1384215000},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":1441697000},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":1473055000},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":1476427000},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":1429100000},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":1410200000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":0.19507565524009057},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":0.22331726287190687},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":0.18018109275225777},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":0.0984542278222027},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":0.10965131861741131},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":0.0493002343765715},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":0.033241800204337243},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":0.02199702389620347},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":0.032817857392764674},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":0.04431995461636647}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-08-30","value":0.15787308986216425},{"time":"2015-08-30","value":0.21607897629281456},{"time":"2016-08-30","value":0.22229404371317107},{"time":"2017-08-30","value":0.1086171985294271},{"time":"2018-08-30","value":0.1026115165340074},{"time":"2019-08-30","value":0.06156414168620264},{"time":"2020-08-30","value":0.05306799284398617},{"time":"2021-08-30","value":0.012083164733320986},{"time":"2022-08-30","value":0.03063741399454758},{"time":"2023-08-30","value":0.044339432937864465}]}

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Maintenance Services; and Leasing & Management Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, and center partition cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, intermodal cars, hoppers and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Maintenance Services segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Management Services segment offers operating leases and per diem leases for a fleet of approximately 12,200 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar re-marketing. This segment provides management services to a fleet of approximately 408,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. It serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Sector

10-K
8/31/23
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10-K
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5/31/18
10-Q
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Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -17%

Earnings Stability 45%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	08-2015	08-2016	08-2017	08-2018	08-2019	08-2020	08-2021	08-2022	08-2023	TTM
Net Margin	7.4%	6.8%	5.4%	6%	2.3%	1.8%	1.9%	1.6%	1.6%	3%
ROA	22%	22%	11%	10%	6.2%	5.3%	1.2%	3.1%	4.4%	6%
ROE	22%	18%	9.8%	11%	4.9%	3.3%	2.2%	3.3%	4.4%	7.6%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.52%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.7%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.07%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.21%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +4.86%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.11%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	08-2015	08-2016	08-2017	08-2018	08-2019	08-2020	08-2021	08-2022	08-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	1.53	2.99	-6.39	-3.92	4.06	-5.10	-2.43	-4.57	-8.95
Debt Equity	-	0.30	0.51	0.34	0.60	0.57	0.62	0.90	0.94	0.99
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	71%	93%	47%	43%	36%	92%	100%	36%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -8.95.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.13.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.36.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	08-2016	08-2018	08-2020	08-2022	Trend
Revenue	5.7%	9.4%	12%	32%	3.3%
Net Income	-14%	-16%	8.5%	33%	-1.1%
Stockholders Equity	4.8%	0.37%	-1.4%	-1.3%	-5.3%
FCF	-	-	-	-	-15%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.38%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.31%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -16.26%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.06%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.37%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.28%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +31.67%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -15.38%.