First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Restaurants
investors.firstwatch.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $1.17B
PE 56
Debt $197.48M
Cash $51.13M
EV $1.31B
FCF -$3.99M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$20.87M
EBIT	$41.90M
ROE	4%
ROA	3%
FCF	-$3.99M
Equity	$589.13M
Growth Stability	1
PE	55.82
PEG	0.67
PB	1.98
P/FCF	-292.08
P/S	1.17
Price/Cash	0.04
Debt/Equity	0.34
Debt/FCF	-49.51
Net Margins	2%
Op. Margins	4%
Earnings CAGR	83%
Sales Growth YoY	15%
Sales Growth QoQ	-3%
Sales CAGR	36%
FCF CAGR	-15%
Equity CAGR	19%
Earnings Stability	-0.27
Earnings Growth YoY	-61%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-76%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	83%
Sales CAGR 5Y	36%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-15%
Equity CAGR 5Y	19%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	20%
Sales CAGR 3Y	20%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-34%
Equity CAGR 3Y	6%
Market Cap	$1.17B
Revenue	$997.25M
Assets	$1.48B
Total Debt	$197.48M
Cash	$51.13M
Shares Outstanding	60.28M
EV	1.31B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	42%
Safety Score	71%
Final Score	40%
Working Capital	-61.01M
Current Ratio	0.54
Shares Growth 3y	5%
Equity Growth QoQ	1%
Equity Growth YoY	6%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.

SEC Filings

Direct access to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 29
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 24
- 10-Q Jun 25
- 10-Q Mar 26
2022
- 10-K Dec 25
- 10-Q Sep 25
- 10-Q Jun 26
- 10-Q Mar 27

Sector Comparison

How does First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 83%

Stability -27%

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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= -$16M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$4M	-$3.4M	-$2.9M	-$2.5M	-$2.1M	-$1.8M	-$1.6M	-$1.3M	-$1.1M	-$970K	-$829K	-$8.3M
DCF		-$3.1M	-$2.4M	-$1.9M	-$1.5M	-$1.1M	-$877K	-$682K	-$530K	-$411K	-$320K	-$3.2M
Value	-$16M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-10%	-15%	-0%	1%	3%	2%
ROA	-	-	2%	2%	3%	3%
ROE	-	-	-0%	1%	5%	4%

Bad Net Margins (2.42%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	3.73	145.38	11.6	-49.51
Debt over Equity	-	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.22	0.34
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	-	1

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-49.51)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.34)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Good Graham’s Stability (1)

The company has a good stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a good competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-22%	76%	21%	22%	36%
Earnings YoY growth	-	9%	-96%	-428%	268%	83%
Equity YoY growth	-	-3%	57%	4%	7%	19%
FCF YoY growth	-	20%	-161%	-97%	1K%	-15%