Federal Signal Corp

FSS

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

Mkt Cap

$5.25B

PE

28.91

Debt

$277.8M

Cash

$48.9M

EV

$5.479B

FCF

$185.9M

Market Cap

$5.25B

P/E Ratio

28.91

Debt

$277.8M

Cash

$48.9M

EV

$5.479B

FCF

$185.9M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":63700000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":63500000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":43800000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":61600000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":94000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":108500000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":96200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":100600000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":120400000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":157400000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":918500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":768000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":707900000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":898500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1089500000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1221300000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1130800000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1213200000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1434800000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1722700000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.069352204681546},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08268229166666667},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.061873145924565616},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06855870895937674},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08627810922441487},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0888397609105052},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.08507251503360452},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08292120013188263},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.0839141343741288},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.09136820107970046}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":658700000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":666500000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":643200000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":992300000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1023800000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1165500000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1208800000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1366100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1524300000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1620500000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":371600000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":405600000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":394100000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":457400000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":530100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":641600000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":702100000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":784000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":860900000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1001900000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.17142088266953714},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15655818540433925},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.11113930474498858},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.13467424573677306},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.17732503301263913},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1691084788029925},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.13701751887195557},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.12831632653061226},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.13985364153792543},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.15710150713644075}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.14057993016547746},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15483870967741936},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09126243781094527},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06882999093016225},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.11867552256300058},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1262119262119262},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.10870284579748511},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09567381597247639},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10549104506986813},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.13853748842949706}]}

Federal Signal Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group. The Environmental Solutions Group segment manufactures and supplies street sweepers, sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, safe-digging trucks, dump truck bodies, and trailers, as well as waterblasting, road-marking, line-removal, and metal extraction support equipment under the Elgin, Vactor, Guzzler, TRUVAC, WestechTM, Jetstream, Mark Rite Lines, Ox Bodies, Crysteel, J-Craft, Duraclass, Rugby, Travis, OSW, NTE, WTB, Ground Force, TowHaul, Bucks, and Switch-N-Go brands; and provides refuse and recycling collection vehicles, camera systems, ice resurfacing equipment, and snow-removal equipment through a dealer network or direct sales to service customers. This segment also engages in the sale of parts, service and repair, equipment rentals, and training. The Safety and Security Systems Group segment provides systems for community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and industrial communications; public safety equipment, such as vehicle lightbars and sirens, industrial signaling equipment, public warning systems, and general alarm/public address systems under the Federal Signal, Federal Signal VAMA, and Victor brands. This segment sells products through wholesalers, distributors, independent manufacturer representatives, original equipment manufacturers, and direct sales force, as well as independent foreign distributors. Federal Signal Corporation was founded in 1901 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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12/31/18
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9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Federal Signal Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$185.9M	$185.5M	$185M	$184.6M	$184.2M	$183.8M	$183.3M	$182.9M	$182.5M	$182.1M	$181.7M	$1.817B
DCF		$161.3M	$139.9M	$121.4M	$105.3M	$91.36M	$79.26M	$68.77M	$59.66M	$51.76M	$44.9M	$449M
Value	$1.373B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 13%

Earnings Stability 69%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	8.3%	6.2%	6.9%	8.6%	8.9%	8.5%	8.3%	8.4%	9.1%	10%
ROA	15%	9.1%	6.9%	12%	13%	11%	9.6%	11%	14%	14%
ROE	16%	11%	13%	18%	17%	14%	13%	14%	16%	17%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.64%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.02%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.55%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.07%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.15%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.56%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	0.51	3.13	4.24	2.67	3.25	1.97	4.40	19.39	1.85	1.49
Debt Equity	0.11	0.16	0.61	0.40	0.34	0.30	0.36	0.42	0.30	0.27
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.49.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.34.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	14%	9.6%	15%	20%	2.6%
Net Income	20%	11%	18%	31%	2.3%
Stockholders Equity	14%	14%	13%	16%	0.86%
FCF	35%	16%	15%	770%	39%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.6%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.6%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.86%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.34%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.58%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.86%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.83%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +39.44%.