Forestar Group Inc.

Finance
Real Estate
www.forestar.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score
Final Score

Market Cap $1.15B
PE 6
Debt $806.80M
Cash $132.00M
EV $1.83B
FCF -$453.70M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$181.70M
EBIT	$240.80M
ROE	11%
ROA	8%
FCF	-$453.70M
Equity	$1.61B
Growth Stability	100%
PE	6.35
PEG	0.18
PB	0.71
P/FCF	-2.54
P/S	0.79
Price/Cash	0.11
Debt/Equity	0.5
Debt/FCF	-1.78
Net Margins	7%
Gross Margins	23%
Op. Margins	17%
Earnings CAGR	31%
Sales Growth YoY	-18%
Sales Growth QoQ	-55%
Sales CAGR	45%
FCF CAGR	6%
Equity CAGR	13%
Earnings Stability	0.48
Earnings Growth YoY	-57%

Earnings Growth QoQ	-80%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	35%
Sales CAGR 5Y	13%
FCF CAGR 5Y	14%
Equity CAGR 5Y	16%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	1%
Sales CAGR 3Y	1%
FCF CAGR 3Y	37%
Equity CAGR 3Y	15%
Market Cap	$1.15B
Revenue	$1.45B
Assets	$2.96B
Total Debt	$806.80M
Cash	$132.00M
Shares Outstanding	50.67M
EV	1.83B
Earnings Score	74%
Moat Score	87%
Safety Score	65%
Final Score	76%
Gross Profit	$341.40M
Shares Growth 3y	1%
Equity Growth QoQ	1%
Equity Growth YoY	15%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Forestar Group Inc is a residential lot development company with operations across the United States. The core business segment for the company is real estate which generates substantially all of its revenues. The firm primarily acquires entitled real estate and develops it into finished residential lots for sale to homebuilders with a strategic focus on asset turns and efficiency. Single-family residential communities account for the majority of their real estate projects. The company's alignment with D.R. Horton has grown the business into a national residential lot developer and has increased residential lot sales, which is responsible for a majority of its revenue. The company utilizes a lower-risk business model by mainly investing in short duration, phased development projects.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Forestar Group Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Forestar Group Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 31%

Stability 48%

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Forestar Group Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Forestar Group Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= -$6.9B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$454M	-$481M	-$510M	-$540M	-$573M	-$607M	-$643M	-$682M	-$723M	-$766M	-$812M	-$8.1B
DCF		-$437M	-$421M	-$406M	-$391M	-$377M	-$363M	-$350M	-$337M	-$325M	-$313M	-$3.1B
Value	-$6.9B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Net Margins	-81%	30%	4%	8%	7%	8%	12%	12%	13%	7%
ROA	-	19%	8%	3%	4%	7%	10%	9%	10%	8%
ROE	-	10%	1%	4%	7%	11%	15%	12%	13%	11%

Bad Net Margins (6.59%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	1.82	-5.81	-1.17	3.82	-2.31	6.71	1.92	-4.4	-1.78
Debt over Equity	0.77	0.2	0.18	0.57	0.74	0.69	0.59	0.51	0.44	0.5
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-1.78)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.5)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Good Graham’s Stability (100%)

The company has a good stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a good competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-25%	-42%	275%	118%	42%	15%	-5%	5%	13%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-128%	-93%	681%	84%	81%	62%	-7%	22%	35%
Equity YoY growth	-	12%	8%	34%	8%	17%	18%	14%	16%	16%
FCF YoY growth	-	-307%	-131%	2K%	-143%	-282%	-135%	245%	-144%	14%