Fair Isaac Corp

FICO

Services-Business Services, NEC

Mkt Cap

$34.34B

PE

71.38

Debt

$2.044B

Cash

$135.7M

EV

$36.24B

FCF

$472.6M

Market Cap

$34.34B

P/E Ratio

71.38

Debt

$2.044B

Cash

$135.7M

EV

$36.24B

FCF

$472.6M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":94879000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":86502000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":109448000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":128256000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":142415000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":192124000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":236411000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":392084000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":373541000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":429375000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":788985000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":838781000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":881356000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":932169000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":1032475000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":1160083000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":1294562000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":1316536000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":1377270000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1513557000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.12025450420476942},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.10312823013396823},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.12418137506297115},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.13758878486626352},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.13793554323349233},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.16561228808628348},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.1826185227127013},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":0.29781487175436144},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":0.2712184248549667},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.28368604552058496}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":1192298000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":1230163000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":1221052000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":1255620000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":1255079000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":1433448000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":1606240000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":1567776000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":1442034000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1575281000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":454614000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":436998000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":446828000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":426537000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":263737000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":289767000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":331082000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":-110942000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":-801947000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":-687990000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.2087023276889845},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.19794598602281932},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.24494436337919737},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.300691381990308},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.5399887008648767},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.6630292614410889},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.7140557324167427},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":-3.5341349533990734},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":-0.4657926271935677},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":-0.6241006409976889}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.13576136167300457},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.11249566114409229},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.1402086070044519},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.14112549975311},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.17474676892848975},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.1784675830584716},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.18625921406514592},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":0.32242424938256486},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":0.3761450839577985},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.40807322630057746}]}

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data decisioning technologies and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

Sector

10-K
9/30/23
10-Q
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10-Q
12/31/18
10-K
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-Q
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Fair Isaac Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$472.6M	$561M	$657.5M	$760.6M	$868.2M	$977.8M	$1.086B	$1.19B	$1.286B	$1.37B	$1.439B	$14.39B
DCF		$487.9M	$497.2M	$500.1M	$496.4M	$486.2M	$469.7M	$447.5M	$420.5M	$389.5M	$355.6M	$3.556B
Value	$8.107B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 24%

Earnings Stability 96%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Net Margin	10%	12%	14%	14%	17%	18%	30%	27%	28%	30%
ROA	11%	14%	14%	17%	18%	19%	32%	38%	41%	40%
ROE	20%	24%	30%	54%	66%	71%	-350%	-47%	-62%	-65%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +22.31%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.32%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +27.44%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +5.42%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -45.12%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -38.44%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	09-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	09-2020	09-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	5.63	3.50	2.94	3.98	3.49	2.46	3.02	3.68	4.01	4.32
Debt Equity	1.39	1.28	1.42	2.90	2.85	2.55	-11.35	-2.31	-2.71	-2.78
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.32.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.04.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	09-2016	09-2018	09-2020	09-2022	Trend
Revenue	8%	8%	5.3%	9.9%	0.094%
Net Income	22%	25%	22%	15%	1.8%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-	2.3%
FCF	16%	19%	11%	-7.7%	0.92%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.95%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.09%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.7%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.84%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.28%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.37%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.92%.