Air Courier Services
FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company's FedEx Express segment offers express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation services; time-critical transportation services; and cross-border enablement, technology, and e-commerce transportation solutions. Its FedEx Ground segment provides day-certain delivery services to businesses and residences. The company's FedEx Freight segment offers less-than-truckload freight transportation services. As of May 31, 2022, this segment had approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. Its FedEx Services segment provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collection, and back-office support services. The company's Corporate, Other and Eliminations segment offers integrated supply chain management solutions, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, and global ocean and air freight forwarding services; and document and business services, as well as retail access to its customers for its package transportation businesses. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Fedex Corp
Growth
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Discount
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%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $3.333B | $4.141B | $5.056B | $6.065B | $7.146B | $8.267B | $9.387B | $10.46B | $11.43B | $12.24B | $12.86B | $128.6B |
DCF | $3.601B | $3.823B | $3.988B | $4.086B | $4.11B | $4.058B | $3.932B | $3.736B | $3.48B | $3.178B | $31.78B | |
Value | $69.77B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 05-2015 | 05-2016 | 05-2017 | 05-2018 | 05-2019 | 05-2020 | 05-2021 | 05-2022 | 05-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5% | 7% | 0.77% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5% |
ROA | 5% | 6.7% | 10% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
ROE | 7% | 13% | 19% | 24% | 3% | 7% | 22% | 15% | 15% | 17% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.05%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.04%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.22%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.38%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +14.28%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.28%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 05-2015 | 05-2016 | 05-2017 | 05-2018 | 05-2019 | 05-2020 | 05-2021 | 05-2022 | 05-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | - | 15.58 | -80.27 | -18.05 | 150.26 | -28.54 | 4.91 | 6.60 | 7.70 | 6.06 |
Debt Equity | 0.48 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | - | 100% | 17% | 48% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 17% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 6.06.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -7.68.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.17.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 05-2016 | 05-2018 | 05-2020 | 05-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8.7% | 6.6% | 9.2% | -3.6% | -0.94% |
Net Income | 12% | -2.8% | 46% | 3.8% | 0.52% |
Stockholders Equity | 9.5% | 6.1% | 13% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
FCF | 17% | - | - | -13% | -0.9% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.61%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.94%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.78%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.52%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.09%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.8%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.9%.