Fastenal Co

FAST

Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

Mkt Cap

$37.06B

PE

32.02

Debt

$200M

Cash

$237.1M

EV

$37.03B

FCF

$1.19B

Market Cap

$37.06B

P/E Ratio

32.02

Debt

$200M

Cash

$237.1M

EV

$37.03B

FCF

$1.19B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":494150000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":516361000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":499478000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":578600000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":751900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":790900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":859100000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":925000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1086900000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1155000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3733507000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":3869187000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":3962036000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":4390500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":4965100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":5333700000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5647300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6010900000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":6980600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":7346700000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1323554502509303},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.1334546508090718},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.12606599233323473},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1317845347910261},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.15143703047269944},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.148283555505559},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.15212579462752113},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.15388710509241543},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15570294817064437},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.15721344277022337}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2359102000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2532462000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2668884000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2910500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":3321500000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":3799900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":3964700000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":4299000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":4548600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4462900000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1915217000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1801289000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1933094000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2096900000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2302700000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2665600000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2733200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3042200000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3163200000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3348800000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2580125385269659},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.2866619404215537},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.25838267564846823},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.27593113643950595},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.32652972597385677},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.2967061824729892},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.3143202107419874},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.3040562750640983},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.34360773899848257},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.3448996655518395}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.3341733422293737},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.32739997678148774},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.29833930586717144},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.30310943136918056},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.30094836670179137},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.27832311376615176},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.2881428607460842},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.283182135380321},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.31957085696697884},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.3425351229021488}]}

Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, which are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; and non-residential construction market, which includes general, electrical, plumbing, sheet metal, and road contractors. It also serves farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Fastenal Co

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.19B	$1.361B	$1.542B	$1.732B	$1.927B	$2.124B	$2.318B	$2.507B	$2.684B	$2.846B	$2.989B	$29.89B
DCF		$1.183B	$1.166B	$1.139B	$1.102B	$1.056B	$1.002B	$942.3M	$877.5M	$809.1M	$738.7M	$7.387B
Value	$17.4B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 12%

Earnings Stability 96%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	13%	13%	13%	15%	15%	15%	15%	16%	16%	16%
ROA	33%	30%	30%	30%	28%	29%	28%	32%	34%	34%
ROE	29%	26%	28%	33%	30%	31%	30%	34%	34%	34%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +15.31%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.15%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +30.21%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.93%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +32.17%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.64%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.09	1.23	0.90	1.01	0.58	0.48	0.73	0.99	0.25	0.17
Debt Equity	0.24	0.21	0.20	0.22	0.13	0.16	0.15	0.24	0.10	0.06
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.17.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.07.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	9.2%	8.2%	9.2%	5.2%	0.53%
Net Income	13%	9%	10%	6.3%	0.53%
Stockholders Equity	8.2%	7.8%	7%	5.9%	0.59%
FCF	21%	20%	11%	64%	2.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.15%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.53%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.96%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.53%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.78%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.59%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.4%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.87%.