National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Health Care
Ophthalmic Goods
www.nationalvision.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $1.04B
PE -36
Debt $440.35M
Cash $75.24M
EV $1.40B
FCF $38.14M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$28.50M
EBIT	-$10.36M
ROE	-3%
ROA	-1%
FCF	$38.14M
Equity	$816.33M
Growth Stability	-96%
PE	-36.39
PEG	-15.83
PB	1.27
P/FCF	27.19
P/S	0.57
Price/Cash	0.07
Debt/Equity	0.54
Debt/FCF	11.54
Net Margins	-2%
Gross Margins	58%
Op. Margins	-1%
Earnings CAGR	4%
Sales Growth YoY	-14%
Sales Growth QoQ	-3%
Sales CAGR	6%
FCF CAGR	19%
Equity CAGR	8%
Earnings Stability	-0
Earnings Growth YoY	79%
Earnings Growth QoQ	238%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	2%
Sales CAGR 5Y	4%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-32%
Equity CAGR 5Y	-1%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-3%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-3%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-7%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-5%
Market Cap	$1.04B
Revenue	$1.82B
Assets	$2.01B
Total Debt	$440.35M
Cash	$75.24M
Shares Outstanding	78.59M
EV	1.4B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	15%
Safety Score	45%
Final Score	22%
Working Capital	-218.45M
Current Ratio	0.53
Gross Profit	$1.06B
Shares Growth 3y	-1%
Equity Growth QoQ	-3%
Equity Growth YoY	-2%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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National Vision Holdings Inc is an optical retailer in the U.S. Its product portfolio includes eyeglasses and sunglasses, contact lenses, accessories, and other products. The operating segments of the company are Owned and Host segment, and the Legacy segment. It derives a majority of the revenue from the Owned and Host segment which includes its two owned brands, America's Best and Eyeglass World, and its Vista Optical locations in Fred Meyer stores. In Owned and Host segment, the company also offers low-cost vision care products and services to American military service members by operating Vista Optical locations on military bases across the country. The Legacy segment of the entity consists of the strategic relationship with Walmart to operate Vision Centers in select Walmart stores.

SEC Filings

Direct access to National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 28
- 10-Q Sep 28
- 10-Q Jun 29
- 10-Q Mar 30
2023
- 10-K Dec 30
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jul 01
- 10-Q Apr 01
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Oct 01
- 10-Q Jul 02
- 10-Q Apr 02
- 10-K Jan 01

Sector Comparison

How does National Vision Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of National Vision Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 4%

Stability -0%

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National Vision Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for National Vision Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $1.5B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$38M	$46M	$54M	$65M	$77M	$92M	$110M	$131M	$156M	$187M	$222M	$2.2B
DCF		$41M	$45M	$49M	$53M	$57M	$62M	$67M	$73M	$79M	$86M	$858M
Value	$1.5B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	0%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	6%	2%	-3%	-2%	-2%
ROA	-	4%	4%	3%	4%	4%	8%	3%	-2%	-1%	-1%
ROE	-	4%	7%	3%	4%	4%	14%	5%	-8%	-3%	-3%

Bad Net Margins (-1.56%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	98.6	-194.08	270.78	8.94	4.57	3.49	100.43	7.92	11.54	11.54
Debt over Equity	-	1.86	0.87	0.78	0.73	0.8	0.62	0.63	0.56	0.54	0.54
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	64%	-96%	-82%	-96%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (11.54)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.54)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-96%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	13%	15%	12%	12%	-1%	21%	-4%	6%	-14%	4%
Earnings YoY growth	-	308%	210%	-48%	39%	11%	254%	-67%	-256%	-57%	2%
Equity YoY growth	-	4%	64%	13%	4%	17%	2%	-3%	-8%	-2%	-1%
FCF YoY growth	-	27%	-139%	-172%	3K%	148%	3%	-97%	931%	-35%	-32%