Expedia Group, Inc.
EXPE
Transportation Services
Mkt Cap
$16.57BPE
22.80Debt
$6.25BCash
$6.492BEV
$16.33BFCF
$1.9BP/E Ratio
22.80Debt
$6.25BCash
$6.492BEV
$16.33BFCF
$1.9BExpedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Retail, B2B, and trivago segments. Its brand portfolio includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand with localized websites; Hotels.com for marketing and distributing lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz; Travelocity; Wotif Group; CheapTickets; ebookers; Expedia; Hotwire; CarRentals.com; Classic Vacations; and Expedia Cruise. The company's brand portfolio also comprises Expedia Partner Solutions, that offers private label and co-branded products through third-party websites; and Egencia that provides travel services to businesses and corporate customers. In addition, its brand portfolio consists of Trivago, a hotel metasearch website, which send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. Further, the company provides loyalty programs, hotel accommodations and alternative accommodations, and advertising and media services. It serves leisure and corporate travelers, that includes travel agencies, tour operators, travel supplier direct websites and call centers, consolidators and wholesalers of travel products and services, online portals and search websites, travel metasearch websites, mobile travel applications, and social media websites, as well as traditional consumer ecommerce and group buying websites. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Expedia Group, Inc.
Value
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $1.9B | $2.268B | $2.67B | $3.102B | $3.553B | $4.014B | $4.471B | $4.908B | $5.31B | $5.66B | $5.943B | $59.43B |
| DCF | $1.972B | $2.019B | $2.039B | $2.032B | $1.996B | $1.933B | $1.845B | $1.736B | $1.609B | $1.469B | $14.69B | |
| Value | $33.34B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 1.3%
Earnings Stability -23%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 6.5% | 11% | 3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | -52% | -3.1% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| ROA | 5.7% | 6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4% | 4.2% | -15% | 0.86% | 5% | 4.7% |
| ROE | 20% | 15% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7% | 10% | -91% | -7.6% | 9.2% | 25% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -6.79%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.31%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +0.48%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.56%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is -10.98%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -3.69%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 1.68 | 5.51 | 3.88 | 4.36 | 3.39 | 3.54 | -1.77 | 2.99 | 2.25 | 3.29 |
| Debt Equity | 0.92 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.03 | 2.74 | 2.59 | 1.67 | 2.14 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 60% | 82% | 88% | 100% | -610% | - | - | -610% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.29.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.49.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -6.13.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.3% | 3% | -1.1% | 36% | 0.41% |
| Net Income | -10% | -1.6% | -15% | - | -8.7% |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.9% | -9.5% | -12% | 5% | -7.9% |
| FCF | 25% | 21% | 20% | -9.7% | -8% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.01%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.41%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -1.58%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -8.74%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -9.46%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.9%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.6%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -8.01%.