Services-Management Services
Evolent Health, Inc., a healthcare company, through its subsidiary, Evolent Health LLC, offers clinical and administrative solutions to payers and providers in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Evolent Health Services and Clinical Solutions. The Evolent Health Services segment provides an integrated administrative and clinical platform for health plan administration and population health management. It offers financial and administrative management services, such as health plan services, risk management, analytics and reporting, and leadership and management; and Identifi, a proprietary technology system that aggregates and analyzes data, manages care workflows, and engages patients. The Clinical Solutions segment offers specialty care management services support a range of specialty care delivery stakeholders during their transition from fee-for-service to value-based care, independent of their stage of maturation and specific market dynamics in oncology, cardiology, and musculoskeletal markets; physician-oriented total cost of care solutions; and holistic total cost of care improvement. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Evolent Health, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $130.4M | $169.6M | $215.7M | $268.4M | $326.6M | $388.3M | $450.9M | $511M | $564.9M | $608.8M | $639.3M | $6.393B |
DCF | $147.4M | $163.1M | $176.5M | $186.7M | $193.1M | $194.9M | $192.1M | $184.7M | $173.1M | $158M | $1.58B | |
Value | $3.35B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
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Net Margin | - | -89% | -16% | -8.6% | -44% | -36% | -4.1% | -1.4% | -7.2% | -6.5% |
ROA | 0% | -20% | -5.5% | -2.8% | -20% | -20% | -0.31% | 0.2% | -2.7% | -2.8% |
ROE | 1.5K% | -25% | -6.7% | -4.6% | -33% | -54% | -5.4% | -2.2% | -13% | -13% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -17.01%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.8%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is -7.62%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.34%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is -18.73%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.76%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | - | - | -2.18 | -3.67 | -3.76 | -6.34 | 15.67 | -8.27 | 5.24 | 4.58 |
Debt Equity | - | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.58.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.52.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | 34% | 26% | 29% | 45% | -2.8% |
Net Income | - | - | - | - | - |
Stockholders Equity | 2.3% | -2.1% | 20% | 24% | 3% |
FCF | - | - | - | - | - |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.65%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.84%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +21.29%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.13%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.96%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.