Etsy Inc

ETSY

Services-Business Services, NEC

Mkt Cap

$7.149B

PE

24.15

Debt

$2.285B

Cash

$788.8M

EV

$8.645B

FCF

$706M

Market Cap

$7.149B

P/E Ratio

24.15

Debt

$2.285B

Cash

$788.8M

EV

$8.645B

FCF

$706M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-15243000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-54063000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-29901000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":81720000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":77454000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":95894000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":349246000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":493507000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-694288000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":307568000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":195591000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":273499000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":364967000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":441231000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":603693000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":818379000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1725625000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2329114000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2566111000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2748377000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.07793303372854579},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.19767165510660004},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.08192795513018986},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.18520910815423214},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1283003115822115},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11717553847300578},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.20238812024628758},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.21188615069936464},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.2705603927499629},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11190895572186785}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":249135000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":553061000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":581193000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":605583000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":901851000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1542352000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2404489000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3831809000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2634961000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2685400000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":67088000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":330498000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":344757000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":396894000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":400898000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":406634000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":742424000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":628619000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-547274000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-543715000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.22720903887431435},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.1635804150100757},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.08673065376482567},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.20589880421472737},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1932012631641964},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.23582386126098653},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.4704131331961251},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.7850653575536215},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1.2686296078381214},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.5656787103537699}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.025090814217191483},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.0034064958476551412},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.03024296576180374},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.05327923670248339},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08292500645893834},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05754911978588545},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.17634058629505064},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.12308912056942295},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.24993159291541697},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1090414835778655}]}

Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Australia, France, and India. Its primary marketplace is Etsy.com that connects artisans and entrepreneurs with various consumers. The company also offers Reverb, a musical instrument marketplace; Depop, a fashion resale marketplace; and Elo7, a Brazil-based marketplace for handmade and unique items. In addition, it offers various seller services, including Etsy Payments, a payment processing service; Etsy Ads, an advertising platform; and Shipping Labels, which allows sellers in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and India to purchase discounted shipping labels. Further, the company provides various seller tools, including Shop Manager dashboard, a centralized hub for Etsy sellers includes ability to manage inventory, check order status, receive notifications about repeat customers, add photos, listing videos, and purchase and print shipping labels. Additionally, it offers educational resources comprising blog posts, video tutorials, Etsy Seller Handbook, Etsy.com online forums, and insights; Etsy Teams, a platform to build personal relationships with other Etsy sellers; and a Star Seller program. As of December 31, 2022, it connected a total of 7.5 million active sellers to 95.1 million active buyers. The company was formerly known as Indieco, Inc changed its name to Etsy, Inc. in June 2006. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
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9/30/21
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3/31/21
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12/31/20
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3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
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10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Etsy Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$706M	$917.8M	$1.168B	$1.453B	$1.768B	$2.102B	$2.44B	$2.766B	$3.058B	$3.296B	$3.46B	$34.6B
DCF		$798.1M	$882.9M	$955.4M	$1.011B	$1.045B	$1.055B	$1.04B	$999.6M	$936.8M	$855.3M	$8.553B
Value	$18.13B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 46%

Earnings Stability 21%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-20%	-8.2%	19%	13%	12%	20%	21%	-27%	11%	11%
ROA	-0.34%	3%	5.3%	8.3%	5.8%	18%	12%	-25%	11%	12%
ROE	-16%	-8.7%	21%	19%	24%	47%	79%	130%	-57%	-51%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.35%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.53%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.98%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -2.41%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +39.79%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.09%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	0.00	1.40	3.94	1.57	3.55	3.39	3.30	3.24
Debt Equity	-	-	0.00	0.69	1.93	1.43	3.62	-4.17	-4.20	-3.91
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-220%	100%	-220%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.24.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.28.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -2.22.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	33%	35%	17%	7.1%	-1.6%
Net Income	-	32%	-4.1%	-	38%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-	-39%
FCF	81%	28%	0.74%	2.9%	-18%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +35.41%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.64%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +31.76%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +38%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -38.61%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.47%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -18.06%.