Elastic N.v.

ESTC

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$7.63B

PE

-35.47

Debt

$575M

Cash

$633.2M

EV

$7.571B

FCF

$80.34M

Market Cap

$7.63B

P/E Ratio

-35.47

Debt

$575M

Cash

$633.2M

EV

$7.571B

FCF

$80.34M

Elastic N.V., a search company, delivers technology solutions designed to run in public or private clouds in multi-cloud environments. It primarily offers Elastic Stack, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as perform search, analysis, and visualization. The company's Elastic Stack product portfolio comprises Elasticsearch, a distributed, real-time search and analytics engine, and data store for various types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the Elastic Stack; Beats, a single-purpose data shippers for sending data from edge machines to Elasticsearch or Logstash; Elastic Agent that offers integrated host protection and central management services; and Logstash, a data processing pipeline for ingesting data into Elasticsearch or other storage systems. It also provides software solutions on the Elastic Stack that address cases, including app search, workplace search, logging, metrics, application performance management, and synthetic monitoring. The company's platform solutions provide new capabilities that helps users to combine the benefits of the Elastic Stack. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Sector

10-Q
10/31/23
10-Q
7/31/23
10-K
4/30/23
10-Q
1/31/23
10-Q
10/31/22
10-Q
7/31/22
10-K
4/30/22
10-Q
1/31/22
10-Q
10/31/21
10-Q
7/31/21
10-K
4/30/21
10-Q
1/31/21
10-Q
10/31/20
10-Q
7/31/20
10-K
4/30/20
10-Q
1/31/20
10-Q
10/31/19
10-Q
7/31/19
10-K
4/30/19
10-Q
1/31/19
10-Q
10/31/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Elastic N.v.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$80.34M	$78.51M	$76.71M	$74.96M	$73.25M	$71.57M	$69.94M	$68.34M	$66.78M	$65.25M	$63.76M	$637.6M
DCF		$68.27M	$58.01M	$49.29M	$41.88M	$35.58M	$30.24M	$25.69M	$21.83M	$18.55M	$15.76M	$157.6M
Value	$522.7M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -

Earnings Stability -

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	04-2017	04-2018	04-2019	04-2020	04-2021	04-2022	04-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-59%	-33%	-38%	-39%	-21%	-24%	-22%	-19%
ROA	-	-26%	-20%	-21%	-13%	-11%	-12%	-11%
ROE	40%	34%	-39%	-40%	-29%	-49%	-59%	-52%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -29.45%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.26%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is -17.16%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.03%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -30.33%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -13.9%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

Data are missing

Years	04-2017	04-2018	04-2019	04-2020	04-2021	04-2022	04-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	0.00	180.42	17.44	7.16
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	0.00	1.38	1.44	1.40
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 7.16.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 8.72.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	04-2018	04-2020	04-2022	Trend
Revenue	46%	36%	24%	-11%
Net Income	-	-	-	-
Stockholders Equity	-	-1.2%	-4%	-20%
FCF	-	-	930%	1K%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +46.22%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -11.05%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +34.97%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -20.06%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.02K%.