Ecolab Inc.

ECL

Soap, Detergents, Cleang Preparations, Perfumes, Cosmetics

Mkt Cap

$65.51B

PE

42.24

Debt

$7.54B

Cash

$479.9M

EV

$72.57B

FCF

$2.06B

Market Cap

$65.51B

P/E Ratio

42.24

Debt

$7.54B

Cash

$479.9M

EV

$72.57B

FCF

$2.06B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1202800000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1002100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1229600000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1508400000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1429100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1558900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-1205100000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1129900000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1091700000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1372300000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":14280500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":13545100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":13152800000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":13838300000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":14668200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":14906300000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":11790200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":12733100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":14187800000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":15320200000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.08422674276110781},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07398247336675255},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09348579770086977},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1090018282592515},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09742845066197625},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10457994270878757},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.10221200658173737},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08873722816910258},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.07694639056090444},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.08957454863513531}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":19466700000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":18641700000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":18330200000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":19962400000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":20074500000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":20869100000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":18126000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":21206400000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":21464300000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":21846600000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":7382100000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6980400000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6970900000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":7688700000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":8053600000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":8725800000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6201500000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":7253100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7258600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":8072200000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1629346662873708},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.1435591083605524},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.17639042304437016},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1961840103008311},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1774485944174034},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1786541062137569},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.19432395388212528},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.15578166577049812},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15040090375554516},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.17000322093109685}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10101352566177113},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08429488726886497},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10560714012940393},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.10216206468160141},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10171112605544347},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10130767498358817},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.08088933024384862},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.07538290327448317},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.0727952926487237},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.09119496855345911}]}

Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Global Industrial, Global Institutional & Specialty, and Global Healthcare & Life Sciences segments. The Global Industrial segment offers water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions to manufacturing, food and beverage processing, transportation, chemical, metals and mining, power generation, pulp and paper, commercial laundry, petroleum, refining, and petrochemical industries. The Global Institutional & Specialty segment provides specialized cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, hospitality, lodging, government and education, and retail industries. Its Global Healthcare & Life Sciences segment offers specialized cleaning and sanitizing products to the healthcare, personal care, and pharmaceutical industries, such as infection prevention and surgical solutions, and end-to-end cleaning and contamination control solutions under the Ecolab, Microtek, and Anios brand names. The company's Other segment offers pest elimination services to detect, eliminate, and prevent pests, such as rodents and insects in restaurants, food and beverage processors, educational and healthcare facilities, hotels, quick service restaurant and grocery operations, and other institutional and commercial customers. This segment also provides colloidal silica for binding and polishing applications in semiconductor, catalyst, and aerospace component manufacturing, as well as chemical industries; and products and services that manage wash process through custom designed programs, premium products, dispensing equipment, water and energy management, and reduction, as well as real time data management. It sells its products through field sales and corporate account personnel, distributors, and dealers. Ecolab Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.

Sector

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12/31/18
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10-Q
3/31/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Ecolab Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$2.06B	$2.08B	$2.1B	$2.12B	$2.14B	$2.161B	$2.182B	$2.202B	$2.223B	$2.245B	$2.266B	$22.66B
DCF		$1.809B	$1.588B	$1.394B	$1.224B	$1.074B	$943.1M	$828M	$726.9M	$638.1M	$560.2M	$5.602B
Value	$16.39B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 0.32%

Earnings Stability -7.7%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	7.4%	9.3%	11%	9.7%	10%	-10%	8.9%	7.7%	9%	10%
ROA	8.4%	11%	10%	10%	10%	8.1%	7.5%	7.3%	9.1%	10%
ROE	14%	18%	20%	18%	18%	-19%	16%	15%	17%	19%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.92%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.2%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.72%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.41%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +10.63%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.65%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	5.26	5.43	5.63	4.92	3.92	4.88	6.17	7.98	5.00	3.66
Debt Equity	0.93	0.96	0.95	0.87	0.73	1.08	1.21	1.18	1.01	0.92
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-80%	100%	100%	100%	-80%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.66.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.40.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.80.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	2.2%	0.87%	9.1%	8%	1.2%
Net Income	1.6%	-0.81%	-	26%	1.4%
Stockholders Equity	2.1%	0.046%	9.2%	11%	0.78%
FCF	4.1%	2.7%	6.1%	52%	0.75%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.87%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.24%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.81%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.39%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.05%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.78%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.73%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.75%.