Dominos Pizza Inc

DPZ

Wholesale-Groceries & Related Products

Mkt Cap

$17.69B

PE

32.76

Debt

$4.979B

Cash

$469.6M

EV

$22.2B

FCF

$493.1M

Market Cap

$17.69B

P/E Ratio

32.76

Debt

$4.979B

Cash

$469.6M

EV

$22.2B

FCF

$493.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":162587000},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":192789000},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":214678000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":277905000},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":361972000},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":400709000},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":491296000},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":510467000},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":452263000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":519118000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":1993833000},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":2216528000},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":2472628000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2787979000},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":3432867000},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":3618774000},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":4117411000},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":4357373000},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":4537158000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4479358000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":0.0815449438343131},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":0.08697792222791681},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":0.08682179446321889},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09967973216441013},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":0.10544305969325349},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":0.11073059550002294},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":0.11932158339305937},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":0.11715017282201914},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":0.09967979955734405},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11589116118872392}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":619280000},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":799845000},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":716295000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":836753000},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":907385000},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":1382092000},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":1567168000},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":1671816000},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":1602221000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1674899000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":-1219465000},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":-1800251000},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":-1883143000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-2735384000},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":-3039921000},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":-3415759000},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":-3300405000},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":-4209536000},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":-4189065000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-4070367000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":-0.13332649973553976},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":-0.10709006688511769},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":-0.11399983962981038},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.10159633894180854},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":-0.11907283116896787},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":-0.11731184782064542},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":-0.1488593066608492},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":-0.12126443389485207},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":-0.10796275541200721},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.12753591997969715}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-27","value":0.557912414416742},{"time":"2016-01-02","value":0.5072882871056267},{"time":"2016-12-31","value":0.634832017534675},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.624669406622982},{"time":"2018-12-29","value":0.6337144651939364},{"time":"2019-12-28","value":0.45833055976013176},{"time":"2021-01-02","value":0.46408298280720384},{"time":"2022-01-01","value":0.4668025667896467},{"time":"2022-12-31","value":0.4792878136037413},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.48929457835965035}]}

Domino's Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. It offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through company-owned and franchised stores. It also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and chicken wings, bread and dips side items, desserts, and soft drink products. Domino's Pizza, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Sector

10-Q
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12/30/18
10-Q
9/9/18
10-Q
6/17/18
10-Q
3/25/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dominos Pizza Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$493.1M	$560.5M	$631.6M	$705.8M	$781.8M	$858.5M	$934.5M	$1.008B	$1.078B	$1.142B	$1.199B	$11.99B
DCF		$487.4M	$477.6M	$464.1M	$447M	$426.8M	$404M	$379M	$352.4M	$324.7M	$296.5M	$2.965B
Value	$7.024B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 14%

Earnings Stability 88%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	01-2022	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	8.7%	8.7%	10%	11%	11%	12%	12%	10%	12%	12%
ROA	51%	63%	62%	63%	46%	46%	47%	48%	49%	49%
ROE	-11%	-11%	-10%	-12%	-12%	-15%	-12%	-11%	-13%	-13%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.14%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.05%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +49.86%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.88%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -12.37%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.04%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	01-2022	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	9.81	9.35	12.55	12.88	10.00	8.17	9.05	12.94	10.28	10.10
Debt Equity	-1.24	-1.16	-1.15	-1.16	-1.20	-1.25	-1.20	-1.20	-1.23	-1.24
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97%	100%	97%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 10.10.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.09.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.97.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	01-2021	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	8.9%	5.5%	2.8%	-1.3%	-1.6%
Net Income	13%	7.5%	1.9%	15%	-2.4%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-	-
FCF	11%	12%	-1.2%	25%	-5.4%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.47%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.59%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.48%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.37%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.01%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.1%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.43%.