Dorman Products, Inc.

DORM

Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories

Mkt Cap

$2.864B

PE

18.31

Debt

$479.8M

Cash

$34.43M

EV

$3.31B

FCF

$190.3M

Market Cap

$2.864B

P/E Ratio

18.31

Debt

$479.8M

Cash

$34.43M

EV

$3.31B

FCF

$190.3M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":89987000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":92329000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":106049000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":106599000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":133602000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":83762000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":106870000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":131532000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":121549000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":129259000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":751476000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":802957000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":859604000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":903221000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":973705000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":991329000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":1092748000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":1345249000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1733749000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1929788000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.11974700456168927},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.11498623213945454},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.12336959809400608},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.11802094946862396},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.1372099352473285},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.08449465313735399},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.09779930963039969},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.0977752074151328},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.0701076107325801},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06698093262057801}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":580368000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":621865000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":711792000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":765924000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":887557000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":1041072000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":1220661000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":1673119000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2341786000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2292407000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":462061000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":518036000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":601642000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":634807000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":727623000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":773584000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":853559000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":932736000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1042631000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1168203000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.19475134235523014},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.17822892617501487},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1762659521775408},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.16792347910467276},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.18361431675469303},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.10827783408136674},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.1252051703514344},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.141017393989296},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.11657911571783305},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11064772132925528}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.24249097124583024},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.2350301110369614},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.23686835480027874},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.23055551203513663},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.19282479885798884},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.1016529116141823},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.11119876853606366},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.1025336512226566},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.07304168698591587},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.09368318976516822}]}

Dorman Products, Inc. supplies replacement and upgrade parts for passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the automotive aftermarket industry worldwide. It offers powertrain product, including intake and exhaust manifolds, cooling products, harmonic balancers, fluid lines, fluid reservoirs, connectors, 4-wheel drive components and axles, drain plugs, and other engine, and transmission and axle components; chassis products comprising control arms, ball joints, tie-rod ends, brake hardware and hydraulics, wheel and axle hardware, suspension arms, knuckles, links, bushings, leaf springs, and other suspension, steering, and brake components; motor vehicle body products, such as door handles and hinges, window lift motors, window regulators, switches and handles, wiper components, lighting, electrical, and other interior and exterior vehicle body components, including windshields for UTVs; and hardware products comprising threaded bolts and auto body fasteners, automotive and home electrical wiring components, and other hardware assortments and merchandise. The company also provides loaded backing plates, drive shafts, windshield wiper and transmission assemblies; window regulators, suspension components, door lock actuators, and body panel repair kits; and leaf springs, intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, window regulators, radiator fan assemblies, tire pressure monitor sensors, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, UTV windshields, and complex electronics modules. It offers its products under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, SuperATV, HELP!, Conduct-Tite, Keller Performance Products, Assault Industries, Gboost, and GDP brands through retail stores, website and customers' websites, and dealers and warehouse distributors. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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7/1/23
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4/1/23
10-K
12/31/22
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3/28/20
10-K
12/28/19
10-Q
9/28/19
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6/29/19
10-Q
3/30/19
10-K
12/29/18
10-Q
9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dorman Products, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$190.3M	$182.7M	$175.4M	$168.4M	$161.6M	$155.2M	$149M	$143M	$137.3M	$131.8M	$126.5M	$1.265B
DCF		$158.9M	$132.6M	$110.7M	$92.42M	$77.15M	$64.4M	$53.76M	$44.88M	$37.46M	$31.27M	$312.7M
Value	$1.116B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 2.6%

Earnings Stability 14%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	11%	12%	12%	14%	8.4%	9.8%	9.8%	7%	6.7%	8.1%
ROA	24%	24%	23%	19%	10%	11%	10%	7.3%	9.4%	11%
ROE	18%	18%	17%	18%	11%	13%	14%	12%	11%	13%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.24%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.13%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.25%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.69%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.09%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.93%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.00	130.08	2.93	2.52
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.00	0.47	0.41	0.41
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	73%	99%	100%	100%	100%	73%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.52.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.47.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.73.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	12%	15%	21%	11%	2%
Net Income	2.9%	-0.66%	6.5%	6.3%	-0.084%
Stockholders Equity	9.9%	9.9%	11%	12%	-0.17%
FCF	7.2%	26%	6.5%	4.2K%	270%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.66%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.03%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.66%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.08%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.93%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.17%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.94%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +267.89%.