Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Dorman Products, Inc. supplies replacement and upgrade parts for passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the automotive aftermarket industry worldwide. It offers powertrain product, including intake and exhaust manifolds, cooling products, harmonic balancers, fluid lines, fluid reservoirs, connectors, 4-wheel drive components and axles, drain plugs, and other engine, and transmission and axle components; chassis products comprising control arms, ball joints, tie-rod ends, brake hardware and hydraulics, wheel and axle hardware, suspension arms, knuckles, links, bushings, leaf springs, and other suspension, steering, and brake components; motor vehicle body products, such as door handles and hinges, window lift motors, window regulators, switches and handles, wiper components, lighting, electrical, and other interior and exterior vehicle body components, including windshields for UTVs; and hardware products comprising threaded bolts and auto body fasteners, automotive and home electrical wiring components, and other hardware assortments and merchandise. The company also provides loaded backing plates, drive shafts, windshield wiper and transmission assemblies; window regulators, suspension components, door lock actuators, and body panel repair kits; and leaf springs, intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, window regulators, radiator fan assemblies, tire pressure monitor sensors, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, UTV windshields, and complex electronics modules. It offers its products under the Dorman, Dayton Parts, SuperATV, HELP!, Conduct-Tite, Keller Performance Products, Assault Industries, Gboost, and GDP brands through retail stores, website and customers' websites, and dealers and warehouse distributors. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dorman Products, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $190.3M | $182.7M | $175.4M | $168.4M | $161.6M | $155.2M | $149M | $143M | $137.3M | $131.8M | $126.5M | $1.265B |
DCF | $158.9M | $132.6M | $110.7M | $92.42M | $77.15M | $64.4M | $53.76M | $44.88M | $37.46M | $31.27M | $312.7M | |
Value | $1.116B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 11% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7% | 6.7% | 8.1% |
ROA | 24% | 24% | 23% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11% |
ROE | 18% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 13% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.24%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.13%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.25%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.69%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.09%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.93%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 130.08 | 2.93 | 2.52 |
Debt Equity | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 73% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 73% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.52.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.47.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.73.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 12% | 15% | 21% | 11% | 2% |
Net Income | 2.9% | -0.66% | 6.5% | 6.3% | -0.084% |
Stockholders Equity | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11% | 12% | -0.17% |
FCF | 7.2% | 26% | 6.5% | 4.2K% | 270% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.66%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.03%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.66%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.08%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.93%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.17%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.94%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +267.89%.