Dollar Tree, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Department/Specialty Retail Stores
www.dollartree.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $15.44B
PE -15
Debt $3.43B
Cash $772.70M
EV $18.10B
FCF $859.70M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$1.04B
EBIT	-$933.90M
ROE	-14%
ROA	-4%
FCF	$859.70M
Equity	$7.64B
Growth Stability	-165%
PE	-14.79
PEG	-4.07
PB	2.02
P/FCF	17.96
P/S	0.49
Price/Cash	0.05
Debt/Equity	0.45
Debt/FCF	3.99
Net Margins	3%
Gross Margins	31%
Op. Margins	-3%
Earnings CAGR	3%
Sales Growth YoY	3%
Sales Growth QoQ	3%
Sales CAGR	6%
FCF CAGR	-6%
Equity CAGR	10%
Earnings Stability	0.11
Earnings Growth YoY	10%
Earnings Growth QoQ	76%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	4%
Sales CAGR 5Y	6%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-21%
Equity CAGR 5Y	4%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	7%
Sales CAGR 3Y	7%
FCF CAGR 3Y	39%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-4%
Market Cap	$15.44B
Revenue	$31.22B
Assets	$23.33B
Total Debt	$3.43B
Cash	$772.70M
Shares Outstanding	215M
EV	18.1B
Earnings Score	7%
Moat Score	26%
Safety Score	57%
Final Score	30%
Working Capital	218.2M
Current Ratio	1.03
Gross Profit	$9.67B
Shares Growth 3y	-2%
Equity Growth QoQ	3%
Equity Growth YoY	-15%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Dollar Tree operates discount stores in the U.S. and Canada, including 8,647 shops under its namesake banner and 8,016 Family Dollar units (as of the end of fiscal 2021). The eponymous chain features branded and private-label goods, generally at a $1.25 price. Around 45% of Dollar Tree stores' fiscal 2021 sales came from consumables (including food, health and beauty, and household paper and cleaning products), nearly 50% from variety items (including toys and housewares), and just over 5% from seasonal goods. Family Dollar features branded and private-label goods at prices generally ranging from $1 to $10, with over 76% of fiscal 2021 sales from consumables, 9% from seasonal/electronic items (including prepaid phones and toys), 8% from home products, and 6% from apparel and accessories.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Nov 02
- 10-Q Aug 03
- 10-Q May 04
- 10-K Feb 03
2023
- 10-Q Oct 28
- 10-Q Jul 29
- 10-Q Apr 29
- 10-K Jan 28
2022
- 10-Q Oct 29
- 10-Q Jul 30
- 10-Q Apr 30
- 10-K Jan 29

Sector Comparison

How does Dollar Tree, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Dollar Tree, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 3%

Stability 11%

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Dollar Tree, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Dollar Tree, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $5.7B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$860M	$807M	$758M	$712M	$668M	$628M	$589M	$553M	$520M	$488M	$458M	$4.6B
DCF		$734M	$626M	$535M	$456M	$390M	$333M	$284M	$242M	$207M	$177M	$1.8B
Value	$5.7B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	TTM
Net Margins	7%	2%	4%	8%	-7%	4%	5%	5%	6%	-3%	3%
ROA	-	7%	11%	12%	-7%	6%	9%	8%	10%	-4%	-4%
ROE	-	6%	17%	24%	-28%	13%	18%	17%	18%	-14%	-14%

Bad Net Margins (2.95%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	25.21	5.9	7.57	4.53	4.52	1.78	8.33	9.35	5.92	3.99
Debt over Equity	0.42	1.72	1.21	0.93	0.76	0.6	0.44	0.44	0.39	0.47	0.45
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	-165%	100%	100%	100%	100%	-70%	-165%

Neutral Debt/FCF ratio (3.99)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.45)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-165%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	80%	34%	7%	3%	3%	8%	3%	8%	8%	6%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-53%	217%	91%	-193%	-152%	62%	-1%	22%	-162%	4%
Equity YoY growth	-	147%	22%	33%	-21%	11%	16%	6%	13%	-16%	4%
FCF YoY growth	-	-50%	269%	-21%	8%	-12%	118%	-77%	-11%	59%	-21%