Dollar Tree, Inc.

DLTR

Retail-Variety Stores

Mkt Cap

$24.8B

PE

-24.84

Debt

$3.45B

Cash

$757.2M

EV

$27.49B

FCF

$583.2M

Market Cap

$24.8B

P/E Ratio

-24.84

Debt

$3.45B

Cash

$757.2M

EV

$27.49B

FCF

$583.2M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":599200000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":282400000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":896200000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":1714300000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":-1590800000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":827000000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":1341900000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":1327900000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":1615400000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":-998400000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":8602200000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":15498400000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":20719200000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":22245500000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":22823300000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":23610800000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":25509300000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":26321200000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":28331700000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":30603800000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.06965659947455302},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.018221235740463533},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.04325456581335187},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.07706277674136343},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":-0.06970070059982561},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.03502634387653108},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":0.052604344297961916},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.05044982751546282},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.05701740453273189},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":-0.032623399708532924}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":3567000000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":15901200000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":15701600000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":16332800000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":13501200000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":19574600000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":20696000000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":21721800000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":23022100000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":22023500000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":1785000000},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":4406900000},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":5389500000},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":7182300000},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":5642900000},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":6254800000},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":7285300000},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":7718500000},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":8751500000},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":7313100000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.33568627450980393},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.06408132700991627},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.16628629743018833},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.23868398702365537},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":-0.28191178294848396},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.13221845622561873},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":0.1841928266509272},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.17204119971497053},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.1845854996286351},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":-0.13652213151741396}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-01-30","value":0.29161760583123075},{"time":"2016-01-29","value":0.06601388574447212},{"time":"2017-01-27","value":0.10857492230091201},{"time":"2018-02-02","value":0.12239787421630094},{"time":"2019-02-01","value":-0.06958640713418067},{"time":"2020-01-31","value":0.06448152197235192},{"time":"2021-01-29","value":0.09122052570545033},{"time":"2022-01-28","value":0.08339087920890534},{"time":"2023-01-27","value":0.09713709870081357},{"time":"2024-02-02","value":-0.04003904919744818}]}

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. The company operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, which includes everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. It operates stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Sector

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11/3/18
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10-Q
5/5/18
10-K
2/3/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dollar Tree, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$583.2M	$594.9M	$606.8M	$619M	$631.4M	$644M	$656.9M	$670.1M	$683.5M	$697.2M	$711.2M	$7.112B
DCF		$517.3M	$458.8M	$407M	$361M	$320.2M	$284M	$251.9M	$223.4M	$198.2M	$175.8M	$1.758B
Value	$4.956B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 15%

Earnings Stability 29%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Net Margin	1.8%	4.3%	7.7%	-7%	3.5%	5.3%	5%	5.7%	-3.3%	-3.3%
ROA	6.6%	11%	12%	-7%	6.4%	9.1%	8.3%	9.7%	-4%	-4%
ROE	6.4%	17%	24%	-28%	13%	18%	17%	18%	-14%	-14%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.55%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.71%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +3.78%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.68%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +4.24%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.49%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	01-2016	01-2017	02-2018	02-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	02-2024	TTM
Debt FCF	25.21	5.90	7.57	4.53	4.52	1.78	8.33	9.35	5.92	5.92
Debt Equity	1.72	1.21	0.93	0.76	0.60	0.44	0.44	0.39	0.47	0.47
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	-160%	100%	100%	100%	100%	-70%	-160%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 5.92.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.80.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.65.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	01-2017	02-2019	01-2021	01-2023	Trend
Revenue	5.7%	6%	6.3%	8%	-6.2%
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-7.9%
Stockholders Equity	4.5%	5.3%	0.13%	-16%	-12%
FCF	-8.8%	-9.3%	-32%	59%	-6.8%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.04%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.16%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -8.9%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.92%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.32%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -11.61%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -9.28%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.76%.