Retail-Eating Places
Dine Brands Global, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, franchises, and operates restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Applebee's Franchise Operations, International House of Pancakes (IHOP), Fuzzy's franchise operations, Rental Operations, Financing Operations, and Company-Operated Restaurant Operations. It owns and franchises three restaurant concepts, including Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar within the casual dining category; and IHOP in the family dining category of the restaurant industry; Fuzzy's Taco Shop within the fast-casual dining category. In addition, its Applebee's restaurants offer American fare with drinks and local draft beers; IHOP restaurants provide full table services, food and beverage; and Fuzzy's Taco Shop offers baja-style mexican food like baja tacos, chips and queso, guacamole and salsa made in house, and a full bar including margaritas, and cold draft beer. The company was formerly known as DineEquity, Inc. and changed its name to Dine Brands Global, Inc. in February 2018. Dine Brands Global, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Glendale, California.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dine Brands Global, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $121.1M | $119.7M | $118.3M | $117M | $115.6M | $114.2M | $112.9M | $111.6M | $110.3M | $109M | $107.8M | $1.078B |
DCF | $104.1M | $89.48M | $76.9M | $66.09M | $56.8M | $48.82M | $41.96M | $36.06M | $30.99M | $26.63M | $266.3M | |
Value | $844.2M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 15% | 15% | -55% | 9.9% | 11% | -15% | 11% | 8.7% | 11% | 10% |
ROA | 11% | 10% | -21% | 9.7% | 10% | -1.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% |
ROE | 39% | 38% | 230% | -38% | -42% | 29% | -39% | -26% | -38% | -35% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.1%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.74%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.16%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.6%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is -25.67%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.55%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 9.93 | 11.40 | 24.75 | 10.50 | 9.58 | 17.88 | 7.15 | 26.69 | 13.67 | 10.61 |
Debt Equity | 4.79 | 5.07 | -8.83 | -6.55 | -5.38 | -4.31 | -5.27 | -4.79 | -5.12 | -5.25 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | -420% | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | -420% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 10.61.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.61.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -4.20.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | 3.9% | 1.3% | 6.4% | -8.6% | -0.16% |
Net Income | -0.26% | 4.1% | - | 20% | -14% |
Stockholders Equity | - | - | - | - | -1.2% |
FCF | -2.5% | -5.7% | 3.2% | 74% | 3.6% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.25%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.16%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.09%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -14.08%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.41%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.16%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -5.71%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.57%.