Dropbox, Inc.

DBX

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$9.538B

PE

17.20

Debt

$1.389B

Cash

$604.3M

EV

$10.32B

FCF

$750.8M

Market Cap

$9.538B

P/E Ratio

17.20

Debt

$1.389B

Cash

$604.3M

EV

$10.32B

FCF

$750.8M

Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform worldwide. The company's platform allows individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate and sign up for free through its website or app, as well as upgrade to a paid subscription plan for premium features. It serves customers in professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Sector

10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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9/30/22
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6/30/22
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3/31/22
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12/31/21
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9/30/21
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6/30/21
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3/31/21
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12/31/20
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9/30/20
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6/30/20
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3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
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9/30/19
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6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Dropbox, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$750.8M	$916.5M	$1.101B	$1.303B	$1.516B	$1.736B	$1.954B	$2.163B	$2.354B	$2.516B	$2.642B	$26.42B
DCF		$797M	$832.9M	$856.6M	$866.9M	$863M	$844.9M	$813.3M	$769.4M	$715.2M	$653M	$6.53B
Value	$14.54B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 120%

Earnings Stability -9.4%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	-25%	-10%	-35%	-3.2%	-13%	16%	24%	22%
ROA	-	-11%	-28%	-1.9%	-10%	9.7%	6.2%	6.8%
ROE	-170%	-110%	-72%	-6.5%	-77%	-110%	-180%	-160%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.69%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.87%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is -5.97%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +5.46%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -92.76%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -15.69%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	0.00	1.96	1.82	1.85
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	0.00	-4.73	-4.49	-3.97
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.85.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.91.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	16%	12%	7.7%	-4.6%
Net Income	-	-	65%	-
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-67%
FCF	20%	25%	7.9%	-14%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +16%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.56%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -66.58%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.14%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -13.64%.