Chevron Corp

CVX

Petroleum Refining

Mkt Cap

$292.6B

PE

14.42

Debt

$21.84B

Cash

$7.212B

EV

$307.2B

FCF

$18.35B

Market Cap

$292.6B

P/E Ratio

14.42

Debt

$21.84B

Cash

$7.212B

EV

$307.2B

FCF

$18.35B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":19241000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4587000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-497000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":9195000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":14824000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2845000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-5561000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":15625000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":35465000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":21369000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":211970000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":138477000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":114472000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":141722000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":166339000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":146516000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":94692000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":162465000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":246252000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":200949000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0907722790960985},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.03312463441582356},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.004341673072891188},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06488054077701415},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08911920836364293},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.019417674520188923},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.05872724200566046},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09617456067460683},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.1440191348699706},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1063404147320962}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":266026000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":266103000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":260078000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":253806000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":253863000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":237428000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":239790000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":239535000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":257709000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":261632000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":156191000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":153886000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":146722000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":149319000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":155642000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":145208000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":132726000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":139940000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":160242000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":161929000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12318891613473247},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.029807779785035675},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.0033873584056923977},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.061579571253490846},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09524421428663214},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.019592584430609884},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.041898346970450404},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11165499499785622},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.22132150122939054},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.13196524402670307}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.11728928751325059},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.018195961714073124},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.007532355677912011},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.03754048367650883},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08399412281427385},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.026677561197499873},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.028174652821218567},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09330995470390549},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.19475454873520134},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.114867447407045}]}

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and processing, transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Chevron Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$18.35B	$22.64B	$27.47B	$32.77B	$38.42B	$44.26B	$50.08B	$55.65B	$60.71B	$64.98B	$68.23B	$682.3B
DCF		$19.69B	$20.77B	$21.54B	$21.96B	$22B	$21.65B	$20.92B	$19.84B	$18.47B	$16.87B	$168.7B
Value	$372.4B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 23%

Earnings Stability 23%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	3.3%	-0.43%	6.5%	8.9%	1.9%	-5.9%	9.6%	14%	11%	10%
ROA	1.8%	-0.75%	3.8%	8.4%	2.7%	-2.8%	9.3%	19%	11%	11%
ROE	3%	-0.34%	6.2%	9.5%	2%	-4.2%	11%	22%	13%	13%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.61%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.76%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.09%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.23%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +8.96%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.69%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-4.63	-10.46	6.86	2.64	2.78	32.71	1.85	0.73	1.28	1.19
Debt Equity	0.30	0.38	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.41	0.28	0.17	0.16	0.14
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	36%	-62%	100%	100%	100%	-62%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.19.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.25.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.62.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	8.4%	3.9%	29%	-18%	5.2%
Net Income	-	7.6%	-	-40%	11%
Stockholders Equity	1.4%	0.8%	6.9%	1.1%	1%
FCF	-	3.3%	130%	-47%	18%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.85%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.24%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.59%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +11.38%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.8%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.04%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.29%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +18.37%.