Cavco Industries Inc.
CVCO
Mobile Homes
Mkt Cap
$2.4BPE
12.32Debt
-Cash
$395MEV
-FCF
$233.6MP/E Ratio
12.32Debt
-Cash
$395MEV
-FCF
$233.6MCavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company markets its factory-built homes under the Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Nationwide, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle, Destiny, Commodore, Colony, Pennwest, R-Anell, Manorwood, MidCountry, and Solitaire brands. It also produces park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops. In addition, the company produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units. Further, it provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers. Additionally, the company offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured homes. It distributes its products through a network of independent and company-owned retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers. Cavco Industries, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Sector
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Cavco Industries Inc.
Value
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $233.6M | $298.1M | $372.9M | $457.1M | $548.9M | $645.3M | $742.4M | $835.5M | $919.3M | $988.4M | $1.038B | $10.38B |
| DCF | $259.2M | $282M | $300.6M | $313.8M | $320.8M | $321M | $314.1M | $300.5M | $281M | $256.5M | $2.565B | |
| Value | $5.515B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 32%
Earnings Stability 92%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 03-2015 | 04-2016 | 03-2017 | 03-2018 | 03-2019 | 03-2020 | 04-2021 | 04-2022 | 03-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 12% | 11% | 10% |
| ROA | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 23% | 18% |
| ROE | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 24% | 25% | 19% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.59%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.02%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +14.74%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.06%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +16.4%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.5%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 03-2015 | 04-2016 | 03-2017 | 03-2018 | 03-2019 | 03-2020 | 04-2021 | 04-2022 | 03-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 2.57 | 1.37 | 1.31 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.09 | - | - |
| Debt Equity | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | - | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.16.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 04-2016 | 03-2018 | 03-2020 | 04-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17% | 20% | 26% | 32% | 2.6% |
| Net Income | 36% | 31% | 47% | 22% | 3.3% |
| Stockholders Equity | 16% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 1.1% |
| FCF | 27% | 33% | 34% | 68% | 10% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.72%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.57%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +31.36%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.33%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.39%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.05%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.24%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +10.03%.