Coterra Energy Inc.

CTRA

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Mkt Cap

$19.76B

PE

8.84

Debt

$2.742B

Cash

$856M

EV

$21.64B

FCF

$2.266B

Market Cap

$19.76B

P/E Ratio

8.84

Debt

$2.742B

Cash

$856M

EV

$21.64B

FCF

$2.266B

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company primarily focuses on the Marcellus Shale with approximately 183,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. It also holds Permian Basin properties with approximately 307,000 net acres; and Anadarko Basin properties with approximately 182,000 net acres located in Oklahoma. In addition, the company operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas. It sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Sector

10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Coterra Energy Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$2.266B	$2.946B	$3.748B	$4.664B	$5.674B	$6.746B	$7.833B	$8.877B	$9.814B	$10.58B	$11.11B	$111.1B
DCF		$2.562B	$2.834B	$3.067B	$3.244B	$3.354B	$3.386B	$3.337B	$3.208B	$3.007B	$2.745B	$27.45B
Value	$58.2B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 60%

Earnings Stability 36%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	4.8%	-8.4%	-36%	5.7%	25%	33%	14%	33%	45%	34%
ROA	2%	-1.7%	-11%	-3.2%	18%	21%	6.5%	7.9%	26%	14%
ROE	4.9%	-5.7%	-16%	4%	27%	32%	9.1%	9.8%	32%	17%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +26.02%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.73%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +12.79%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.83%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +18.87%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.92%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	-7.20	-9.52	88.71	13.67	5.83	1.99	6.53	3.33	0.58	1.21
Debt Equity	0.82	1.02	0.60	0.72	0.59	0.61	0.60	0.27	0.17	0.21
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-460%	-	-	100%	45%	100%	100%	-460%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.21.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.95.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -4.63.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	31%	39%	64%	160%	16%
Net Income	-	110%	81%	250%	37%
Stockholders Equity	30%	38%	81%	7.8%	22%
FCF	-	95%	79%	300%	-35%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +38.68%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +16.39%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +109.56%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +37.34%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +38.06%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +21.76%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +94.89%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -35.45%.