Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries
Cencora, Inc. sources and distributes pharmaceutical products. Its U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment distributes pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter healthcare products, home healthcare supplies and equipment, and related services to acute care hospitals and health systems, independent and chain retail pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, medical clinics, long-term care and alternate site pharmacies, and other customers. The company also provides pharmacy management, staffing, and other consulting services; supply management software to retail and institutional healthcare providers; packaging solutions to various institutional and retail healthcare providers; clinical trial support, product post-approval, and commercialization support services; data analytics, outcomes research, and additional services for biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturers; and pharmaceuticals, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, micro feed ingredients, and other products to the companion animal and production animal markets. In addition, this segment distributes plasma and other blood products, injectable pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and other specialty products; and provides other services primarily to physicians who specialize in various disease states, primarily oncology, as well as to other healthcare providers, including hospitals and dialysis clinics. The company's International Healthcare Solutions segment offers international pharmaceutical wholesale and related service, and global commercialization services; and distributes pharmaceuticals, other healthcare products, and related services to pharmacies, doctors, health centers and hospitals primarily in Europe. This segment also provides specialty transportation and logistics services for the biopharmaceutical industry. The company was formerly known as AmerisourceBergen Corporation and changed its name to Cencora, Inc. in August 2023. Cencora, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Cencora, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $2.112B | $2.159B | $2.207B | $2.256B | $2.306B | $2.358B | $2.41B | $2.464B | $2.519B | $2.575B | $2.632B | $26.32B |
DCF | $1.877B | $1.669B | $1.483B | $1.319B | $1.172B | $1.042B | $926.3M | $823.4M | $731.9M | $650.7M | $6.507B | |
Value | $18.2B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
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Net Margin | -0.099% | 0.97% | 0.24% | 0.96% | 0.48% | -1.8% | 0.72% | 0.7% | 0.66% | 0.67% |
ROA | 1.5% | 4.5% | 3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | -12% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4% |
ROE | -21% | 67% | 18% | 53% | 29% | 410% | 260% | 2.3K% | 260% | 150% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.29%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.05%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.18%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.55%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +558.21%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +223.48%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 0.95 | 1.77 | 3.33 | 4.15 | 2.12 | 2.51 | 3.13 | 3.07 | 1.57 | 2.99 |
Debt Equity | 5.51 | 2.26 | 1.67 | 1.46 | 1.44 | -5.50 | 11.95 | 95.03 | 8.15 | 5.15 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 70% | 100% | 75% | -360% | - | - | - | -360% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.99.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.27.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.61.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 09-2016 | 09-2018 | 09-2020 | 09-2022 | Trend |
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Revenue | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11% | 9.9% | 0.13% |
Net Income | 2.8% | 1.4% | - | 4% | -13% |
Stockholders Equity | -15% | -26% | - | 830% | 56% |
FCF | 3.5% | 26% | 23% | 56% | -6.1% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.32%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.13%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.4%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -12.72%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -26.23%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +55.98%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +26.29%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.14%.