Centene Corp
CNC
Hospital & Medical Service Plans
Mkt Cap
$39.89BPE
16.32Debt
$18BCash
$18.45BEV
$39.44BFCF
$5.451BP/E Ratio
16.32Debt
$18BCash
$18.45BEV
$39.44BFCF
$5.451BCentene Corporation operates as a healthcare enterprise that provides programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations, and military families in the United States. It operates in two segments, Managed Care and Specialty Services. The Managed Care segment offers health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs, including Medicaid, the State children's health insurance program, long-term services and support, foster care, and medicare-medicaid plans, which cover dually eligible individuals, as well as aged, blind, or disabled programs. This segment also provides a variety of individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products to employers and members. This segment also offers various individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products to employers and members. The Specialty Services segment offers behavioral health and employee assistance plans; clinical healthcare, primary care, various specialty services, and a suite of social and other support services; data analytics solutions; administrative services to Military Health System eligible beneficiaries; traditional pharmacy clinical and administrative services as well as specialized pharmacy benefit services through its specialty pharmacy business; and vision and dental health services. This segment provides auxiliary healthcare services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups, and other commercial organizations; and engages in the government contracts business under the TRICARE program and other healthcare related government contracts. The company provides its services through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and ancillary providers. Centene Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Centene Corp
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $5.451B | $7.086B | $9.015B | $11.22B | $13.65B | $16.23B | $18.84B | $21.36B | $23.61B | $25.45B | $26.72B | $267.2B |
| DCF | $6.162B | $6.817B | $7.377B | $7.804B | $8.068B | $8.146B | $8.028B | $7.718B | $7.233B | $6.604B | $66.04B | |
| Value | $140B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 25%
Earnings Stability 76%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.83% | 1.6% |
| ROA | 8.4% | 10% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% |
| ROE | 15% | 16% | 9.5% | 12% | 8.1% | 10% | 6.9% | 5% | 5% | 9.6% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.4%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.16%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.53%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.83%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +7.85%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.34%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 0.80 | 2.42 | 3.10 | 4.53 | 12.32 | 18.52 | 3.66 | 5.86 | 3.47 | 3.30 |
| Debt Equity | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 1.10 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% | 81% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.30.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.13.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.81.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30% | 24% | 25% | 15% | -4.6% |
| Net Income | 19% | 8.3% | -2.8% | -10% | -8.3% |
| Stockholders Equity | 41% | 29% | 24% | -10% | -6.7% |
| FCF | 40% | 38% | 91% | 60% | -0.33% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.47%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.62%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.27%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -8.32%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.64%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.67%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +37.57%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.33%.