Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Consumer Discretionary
Restaurants
www.chipotle.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score

Market Cap $88.26B
PE 59
Debt $NaN
Cash $726.52M
EV $NaN
FCF $1.25B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$1.48B
EBIT	$1.95B
ROE	41%
ROA	22%
FCF	$1.25B
Equity	$3.61B
Growth Stability	56%
PE	59.46
PEG	1.3
PB	24.42
P/FCF	70.55
P/S	8.03
Price/Cash	0.01
Net Margins	14%
Op. Margins	18%
Earnings CAGR	36%
Sales Growth YoY	13%
Sales Growth QoQ	-6%
Sales CAGR	13%
FCF CAGR	29%
Equity CAGR	7%
Earnings Stability	0.72
Earnings Growth YoY	24%

Earnings Growth QoQ	-15%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	46%
Sales CAGR 5Y	17%
FCF CAGR 5Y	40%
Equity CAGR 5Y	17%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	14%
Sales CAGR 3Y	14%
FCF CAGR 3Y	23%
Equity CAGR 3Y	24%
Market Cap	$88.26B
Revenue	$10.98B
Assets	$9.01B
Cash	$726.52M
Shares Outstanding	1.37B
Earnings Score	93%
Moat Score	96%
Working Capital	642.37M
Current Ratio	1.62
Shares Growth 3y	-1%
Equity Growth QoQ	-3%
Equity Growth YoY	25%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $7.5 billion in 2021. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of more than 3,000 stores, heavily indexed to the United States (though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 36%

Stability 72%

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Years

Calculation mode

= $93B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$1.3B	$1.6B	$2.1B	$2.7B	$3.4B	$4.4B	$5.7B	$7.3B	$9.4B	$12B	$16B	$156B
DCF		$1.5B	$1.7B	$2B	$2.3B	$2.7B	$3.2B	$3.8B	$4.4B	$5.1B	$6B	$60B
Value	$93B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	11%	11%	1%	4%	4%	6%	6%	9%	10%	12%	14%
ROA	-	28%	2%	13%	12%	9%	5%	12%	17%	20%	22%
ROE	-	22%	2%	13%	12%	21%	18%	28%	38%	40%	41%

Good Net Margins (14.2%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	-
Debt over Equity	-	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	-
Growth Stability	-	-	-	56%	78%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	56%

Neutral Debt/FCF ratio (-)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Neutral Debt/Equity ratio (-)

The company has a balance between equity and debt that is not too good nor too bad.

Bad Graham’s Stability (56%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	10%	-13%	15%	9%	15%	7%	26%	14%	14%	17%
Earnings YoY growth	-	7%	-95%	668%	0%	98%	2%	84%	38%	37%	46%
Equity YoY growth	-	6%	-34%	-3%	6%	17%	20%	14%	3%	29%	17%
FCF YoY growth	-	-1%	-77%	161%	33%	16%	-25%	189%	1%	45%	40%