Cincinnati Financial Corp
CINF
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Mkt Cap
$18.13BPE
7.64Debt
$848MCash
$619MEV
$18.36BFCF
$2.134BP/E Ratio
7.64Debt
$848MCash
$619MEV
$18.36BFCF
$2.134BCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":525000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":634000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":591000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1045000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":287000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1997000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1216000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2946000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-486000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1843000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":4945000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":5142000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":5449000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":5732000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":5407000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":7924000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":7536000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":9630000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":6557000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":10013000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10616784630940344},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.12329832749902761},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10846026793907139},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.18230983949755758},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.0530793415942297},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.25201918223119635},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.1613588110403397},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.3059190031152648},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.07411926185755681},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1840607210626186}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":18753000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":18888000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":20386000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":21843000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":21935000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":25408000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":27542000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":31387000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":29736000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":32769000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":6573000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6427000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":7060000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":8243000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7833000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":9864000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":10789000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":13105000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":10531000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":12098000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07987220447284345},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.09864633577096624},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08371104815864022},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.12677423268227586},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.03663985701519214},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.20245336577453366},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11270738715358235},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.22479969477298742},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.04614946348874751},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.15233922962473137}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.04127339625659895},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.049449385853451926},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.04243108015304621},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.03584672435105068},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.013859129245498062},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09937814861460957},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.05638660954179072},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11692739032083346},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-0.023305084745762712},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06945588818700602}]}
Cincinnati Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty, commercial property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. It also provides director and officer liability insurance, contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; and machinery and equipment coverage. The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto insurance; homeowner insurance; and dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages to individuals. The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance products; universal life insurance products; worksite products, such as term life; and whole life insurance products. The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. It also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. Cincinnati Financial Corporation was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.
Sector
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Cincinnati Financial Corp
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $2.134B | $2.361B | $2.598B | $2.842B | $3.091B | $3.343B | $3.594B | $3.841B | $4.081B | $4.311B | $4.527B | $45.27B |
| DCF | $2.053B | $1.964B | $1.869B | $1.767B | $1.662B | $1.554B | $1.444B | $1.334B | $1.225B | $1.119B | $11.19B | |
| Value | $27.18B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 7.3%
Earnings Stability 3%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 12% | 11% | 18% | 5.3% | 25% | 16% | 31% | -7.4% | 18% | 22% |
| ROA | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 12% | -2.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| ROE | 9.9% | 8.4% | 13% | 3.7% | 20% | 11% | 22% | -4.6% | 15% | 19% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +14.71%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.51%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.55%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.08%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.38%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.16%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| Debt Equity | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 38% | 100% | 100% | 100% | -24% | 100% | -24% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.40.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.07.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.24.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.1% | 13% | 9.9% | 53% | 2.1% |
| Net Income | 18% | 45% | 15% | - | 29% |
| Stockholders Equity | 8% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 15% | 0.062% |
| FCF | 9.3% | 12% | 11% | -0.15% | 0.024% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.12%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.12%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +45.05%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +29.25%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.08%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.06%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +11.87%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.02%.