Ciena Corp

CIEN

Telephone & Telegraph Apparatus

Mkt Cap

$7.175B

PE

31.45

Debt

$1.555B

Cash

$1.265B

EV

$7.465B

FCF

$607.3M

Market Cap

$7.175B

P/E Ratio

31.45

Debt

$1.555B

Cash

$1.265B

EV

$7.465B

FCF

$607.3M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":-40637000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":11667000},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":72584000},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":1261953000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":-344690000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":253434000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":361291000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":500196000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":152902000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":254827000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":2288289000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":2445669000},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":2600573000},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":2801687000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":3094286000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":3572131000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":3532157000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":3620684000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":3632661000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":4386549000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":-0.017758683453007903},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.004770473845806608},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":0.027910771972176902},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":0.45042611826374607},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":-0.11139564991729918},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.07094756603271268},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.10228622340399932},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.13814958720506954},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.04209090801481338},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.05809281966301984}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":2072632000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":2695051000},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":2882442000},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":3951711000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":3893346000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":4180917000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":4865227000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":5069632000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":5601495000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":-69615000},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":620876000},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":766341000},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":2136342000},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":1929334000},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":2172761000},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":2509597000},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":3020018000},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":2712861000},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":2848361000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":0.5837391366803132},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.01879119179997294},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":0.0947150159002324},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":0.5907073867386402},{"time":"2018-11-02","value":-0.17865750564702637},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.11664145297158776},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.14396375194901812},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.16562682738977053},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.056361899854065506},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.08946443235250026}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-10-30","value":0.02205118901956546},{"time":"2015-10-30","value":0.037271279838489144},{"time":"2016-10-30","value":0.054179407599528454},{"time":"2017-10-30","value":0.05433646336991749},{"time":"2019-11-01","value":0.09006186452475583},{"time":"2020-10-30","value":0.11654907284693765},{"time":"2021-10-29","value":0.10181559873773618},{"time":"2022-10-28","value":0.043949541110676275},{"time":"2023-10-27","value":0.06383028102319113}]}

Ciena Corporation provides hardware and software services for delivery of video, data, and voice traffic metro, aggregation, and access communications network worldwide. The company's Networking Platforms segment offers convergence of coherent optical transport, open optical networking, IP routing, and switching services. Its products include 6500 Packet-Optical Platform, 5400 Reconfigurable Switching System, Waveserver stackable interconnect system, and the 6500 Reconfigurable line system, and the 5400 family of Packet-Optical platforms, as well as Z-Series Packet-Optical Platform; 3000 family of service delivery switches and the 5000 family of service aggregation switches, as well as 8700 Packetwave Platform and 6500 Packet Transport System. This segment also sells operating system software and enhanced software features embedded in each of its products. The company's Blue Planet Automation Software and Services segment provides multi-domain service orchestration, inventory, route optimization and analysis, network function virtualization orchestration, analytics, and related services. Its Platform Software and Service segment offers OneControl unified management system that support network solutions. The company's Global Services segment provides consulting and network design, installation and deployment, maintenance support, and training services. Ciena Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hanover, Maryland.

Sector

10-Q
7/29/23
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10-K
10/29/22
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10-Q
4/30/19
10-Q
1/31/19
10-K
10/31/18
10-Q
7/31/18
10-Q
4/30/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Ciena Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$607.3M	$639.8M	$673.8M	$709.4M	$746.6M	$785.4M	$825.9M	$868.2M	$912.3M	$958.2M	$1.006B	$10.06B
DCF		$556.4M	$509.5M	$466.4M	$426.9M	$390.5M	$357.1M	$326.4M	$298.2M	$272.4M	$248.7M	$2.487B
Value	$6.339B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 20%

Earnings Stability 19%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	10-2015	10-2016	10-2017	11-2018	11-2019	10-2020	10-2021	10-2022	10-2023	TTM
Net Margin	0.48%	2.8%	45%	-11%	7.1%	10%	14%	4.2%	5.8%	5.2%
ROA	3.7%	5.4%	5.4%	-	9%	12%	10%	4.4%	6.4%	6.1%
ROE	1.9%	9.5%	59%	-18%	12%	14%	17%	5.6%	8.9%	7.8%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.28%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.32%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.25%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +6.56%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3.38%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	10-2015	10-2016	10-2017	11-2018	11-2019	10-2020	10-2021	10-2022	10-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	6.37	6.92	6.67	-	1.96	1.68	1.48	-4.13	25.03	2.56
Debt Equity	2.05	1.65	0.44	-	0.32	0.28	0.23	0.39	0.55	0.53
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	-77%	77%	93%	100%	41%	75%	-77%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.56.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 4.03.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.77.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	10-2016	11-2018	10-2020	10-2022	Trend
Revenue	7.8%	7.2%	7.5%	21%	0.26%
Net Income	20%	-	-11%	67%	-170%
Stockholders Equity	21%	8.1%	4.3%	5%	-12%
FCF	-14%	-17%	-47%	-	-33%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.23%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.26%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -168.2%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.1%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -11.68%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -17.4%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -32.61%.