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Carlyle Group Inc.
CG
Investment Advice
Mkt Cap
$15.48BPE
-24.06Debt
-Cash
$1.278BEV
-FCF
$320.6MP/E Ratio
-24.06Debt
-Cash
$1.278BEV
-FCF
$320.6MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":84515900},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-18400000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6400000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":238100000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":92900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":345300000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":348200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2974700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1225000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-608400000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3880300000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":3006200000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2274300000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":3676200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2427200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":3377000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2934600000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":8782100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":4438700000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2963900000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.021780764373888616},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.006120683919898876},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0028140526755485204},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06476796692236549},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.03827455504284773},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10225051821143026},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11865330879847338},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.33872308445588184},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.27598170635546443},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.20527008333614494}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":35994300000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":32191000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":9973000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":12280600000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":12914200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":13808800000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":15644800000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":21250400000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":21403000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":21176000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":9094500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6077600000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1454000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2949000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2836300000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2969600000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2930200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5706200000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":6821300000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":5784500000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.009293078234097531},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.003027510859549822},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.004401650618982118},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.08073923363852153},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.032753939992243415},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11627828663793104},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11883147907992629},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.5213101538677228},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.1795845366718954},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.1051776298729363}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.02755714099176814},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.012494175390637135},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.004542264113105384},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09220233539077895},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.02789177804277462},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.08931985400614101},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03707302106770301},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.18952584421940294},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.07347100873709293},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.028376463921420476}]}
The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $1 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 21 countries across 5 continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe).
Sector
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Carlyle Group Inc.
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $320.6M | $268.6M | $225.1M | $188.6M | $158.1M | $132.4M | $111M | $93M | $77.93M | $65.3M | $54.72M | $547.2M |
| DCF | $233.6M | $170.2M | $124M | $90.37M | $65.85M | $47.98M | $34.96M | $25.47M | $18.56M | $13.53M | $135.3M | |
| Value | $959.8M | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 71%
Earnings Stability 30%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | -0.61% | 0.28% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 10% | 12% | 34% | 28% | -21% | -23% |
| ROA | 1.2% | 0.45% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 19% | 7.3% | -2.8% | -3.1% |
| ROE | -0.3% | 0.44% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 12% | 12% | 52% | 18% | -11% | -11% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.14%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.36%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.48%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.5%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +14.39%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.28%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 4.51 | -11.89 | -105.19 | -13.08 | 14.36 | -24.33 | 3.37 | -6.10 | 47.17 | - |
| Debt Equity | 2.85 | 2.67 | 1.47 | 1.73 | 1.60 | 1.91 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.13 | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | -40% | -40% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 7.65.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.40.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.33% | -33% | 3% |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | -460% |
| Stockholders Equity | 22% | 15% | 25% | -15% | 5.8% |
| FCF | - | - | - | - | - |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.08%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.97%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -463.45%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.32%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.75%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.