Cf Industries Holdings, Inc.

Industrials
Agricultural Chemicals
www.cfindustries.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score
Final Score

Market Cap $13.85B
PE 11
Debt $3.00B
Cash $1.61B
EV $15.24B
FCF $1.75B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$1.22B
EBIT	$1.76B
ROE	16%
ROA	13%
FCF	$1.75B
Equity	$7.59B
Growth Stability	63%
PE	11.37
PEG	0.25
PB	1.82
P/FCF	7.9
P/S	2.33
Price/Cash	0.12
Debt/Equity	0.4
Debt/FCF	1.71
Net Margins	21%
Gross Margins	35%
Op. Margins	30%
Earnings CAGR	33%
Sales Growth YoY	-3%
Sales Growth QoQ	11%
Sales CAGR	10%
FCF CAGR	20%
Equity CAGR	4%
Earnings Stability	0.56
Earnings Growth YoY	20%
Earnings Growth QoQ	19%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	46%

Sales CAGR 5Y	12%
FCF CAGR 5Y	18%
Equity CAGR 5Y	11%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-22%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-22%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-30%
Equity CAGR 3Y	4%
Market Cap	$13.85B
Revenue	$5.94B
Dividend Yield	3%
Payout Ratio	30%
Assets	$13.47B
Total Debt	$3.00B
Cash	$1.61B
Shares Outstanding	169.88M
EV	15.24B
Earnings Score	85%
Moat Score	95%
Safety Score	86%
Final Score	89%
Working Capital	1.7B
Current Ratio	3.08
Gross Profit	$2.06B
Shares Growth 3y	-6%
Equity Growth QoQ	-2%
Equity Growth YoY	-9%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers. The company operates seven nitrogen facilities in North America and holds joint-venture interests in further production capacity in the United Kingdom and Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost U.S. natural gas as its feedstock, making CF one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. The company is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 33%

Stability 56%

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Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Cf Industries Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $69B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.5B	$3B	$3.6B	$4.3B	$5.1B	$6.1B	$7.3B	$8.7B	$10B	$104B
DCF		$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.7B	$2.9B	$3.1B	$3.4B	$3.7B	$4B	$40B
Value	$69B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	16%	-8%	9%	7%	11%	8%	14%	30%	23%	21%	21%
ROA	-	1%	2%	6%	8%	5%	14%	41%	16%	13%	13%
ROE	-	-4%	5%	5%	9%	6%	15%	43%	18%	16%	16%

Good Net Margins (20.52%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-3.67	4.1	4.42	3.63	4.61	1.48	0.88	1.33	1.71	1.71
Debt over Equity	1.28	0.9	0.71	0.83	0.71	0.76	0.58	0.38	0.36	0.4	0.4
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	83%	100%	100%	100%	63%	63%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (1.71)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.4)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (63%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-14%	12%	7%	4%	-10%	59%	71%	-41%	-10%	12%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-140%	-229%	-19%	70%	-36%	189%	265%	-54%	-20%	46%
Equity YoY growth	-	48%	3%	-14%	-2%	-1%	8%	30%	7%	-9%	11%
FCF YoY growth	-	26%	-173%	-7%	2%	-16%	156%	44%	-34%	-22%	18%