Cf Industries Holdings, Inc.

Industrials
Agricultural Chemicals
www.cfindustries.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score
Final Score

Market Cap $15.80B
PE 14
Debt $3.00B
Cash $1.88B
EV $16.92B
FCF $1.82B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$1.16B
EBIT	$1.77B
ROE	15%
ROA	13%
FCF	$1.82B
Equity	$7.74B
Growth Stability	59%
PE	13.57
PEG	0.27
PB	2.04
P/FCF	8.67
P/S	2.64
Price/Cash	0.12
Debt/Equity	0.39
Debt/FCF	1.65
Net Margins	20%
Gross Margins	34%
Op. Margins	30%
Earnings CAGR	26%
Sales Growth YoY	8%
Sales Growth QoQ	-13%
Sales CAGR	10%
FCF CAGR	20%
Equity CAGR	4%
Earnings Stability	0.45
Earnings Growth YoY	68%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-34%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	50%

Sales CAGR 5Y	15%
FCF CAGR 5Y	22%
Equity CAGR 5Y	12%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-15%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-15%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-24%
Equity CAGR 3Y	9%
Market Cap	$15.80B
Revenue	$5.98B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	30%
Assets	$13.84B
Total Debt	$3.00B
Cash	$1.88B
Shares Outstanding	178.4M
EV	16.92B
Earnings Score	67%
Moat Score	94%
Safety Score	82%
Final Score	81%
Working Capital	1.84B
Current Ratio	2.81
Gross Profit	$2.03B
Shares Growth 3y	-5%
Equity Growth QoQ	-5%
Equity Growth YoY	-7%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers. The company operates seven nitrogen facilities in North America and holds joint-venture interests in further production capacity in the United Kingdom and Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost U.S. natural gas as its feedstock, making CF one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. The company is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 26%

Stability 45%

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Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Cf Industries Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $74B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$1.8B	$2.2B	$2.6B	$3.1B	$3.8B	$4.5B	$5.4B	$6.5B	$7.8B	$9.4B	$11B	$112B
DCF		$2B	$2.2B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$3.1B	$3.3B	$3.6B	$4B	$4.3B	$43B
Value	$74B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	29%	16%	-8%	9%	7%	11%	8%	14%	30%	23%	20%
ROA	-	10%	1%	2%	6%	8%	5%	14%	41%	16%	13%
ROE	-	16%	-4%	5%	5%	9%	6%	15%	43%	18%	15%

Good Net Margins (20.17%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-4.44	-3.67	4.1	4.42	3.63	4.61	1.48	0.88	1.33	1.65
Debt over Equity	1	1.28	0.9	0.71	0.83	0.71	0.76	0.58	0.38	0.36	0.39
Growth Stability	-	-	-	59%	100%	100%	83%	100%	100%	100%	59%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (1.65)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.39)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (59%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-9%	-14%	12%	7%	4%	-10%	59%	71%	-41%	15%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-50%	-140%	-229%	-19%	70%	-36%	189%	265%	-54%	50%
Equity YoY growth	-	-4%	48%	3%	-14%	-2%	-1%	8%	30%	7%	12%
FCF YoY growth	-	226%	26%	-173%	-7%	2%	-16%	156%	44%	-34%	22%