Certara, Inc.

CERT

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$2.356B

PE

-69.86

Debt

$298.2M

Cash

$272.3M

EV

$2.382B

FCF

$93.83M

Market Cap

$2.356B

P/E Ratio

-69.86

Debt

$298.2M

Cash

$272.3M

EV

$2.382B

FCF

$93.83M

Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Certara, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$93.83M	$122M	$155.2M	$193.1M	$235M	$279.4M	$324.4M	$367.6M	$406.4M	$438M	$459.9M	$4.599B
DCF		$106.1M	$117.3M	$127M	$134.3M	$138.9M	$140.2M	$138.2M	$132.9M	$124.5M	$113.7M	$1.137B
Value	$2.41B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 69%

Earnings Stability -65%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	-4.3%	-20%	-4.6%	4.4%	-9.6%
ROA	-	-1.9%	0.9%	2.1%	-1.4%
ROE	-1.8%	-6%	-1.3%	1.4%	-3.2%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.12%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.03%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.48%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.17%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +0.05%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.64%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

Data are missing

Years	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	-	6.91	5.12	3.30	3.18
Debt Equity	-	0.37	0.29	0.28	0.28
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.18.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.82.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	17%	17%	0.26%
Net Income	-	-	-
Stockholders Equity	30%	3.6%	-32%
FCF	36%	54%	16%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.26%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -31.73%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +15.72%.