Carnival Corp

CCL

Water Transportation

Mkt Cap

$19.78B

PE

48.84

Debt

$33.75B

Cash

$2.274B

EV

$51.25B

FCF

$1.314B

Market Cap

$19.78B

P/E Ratio

48.84

Debt

$33.75B

Cash

$2.274B

EV

$51.25B

FCF

$1.314B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":1236000000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":1757000000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":2779000000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":2606000000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":3152000000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":2990000000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":-10236000000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":-9501000000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":-6093000000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":-74000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":15884000000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":15714000000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":16389000000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":17510000000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":18881000000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":20825000000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":5595000000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":1908000000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":12168000000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":21593000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.07781415260639638},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":0.11181112383861525},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":0.16956495210201963},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.1488292404340377},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.1669403103649171},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.14357743097238895},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":-1.829490616621984},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":-4.979559748427673},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":-0.5007396449704142},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":-0.003427036539619321}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":39532000000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":39237000000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":38936000000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":40778000000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":42401000000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":45058000000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":53593000000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":53344000000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":51703000000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":49120000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":24288000000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":23771000000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":22597000000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":24216000000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":24443000000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":25365000000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":20555000000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":12144000000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":7065000000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":6882000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.050889328063241104},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":0.07391359219216692},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":0.12298092667168208},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.10761480013214404},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.12895307449985682},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.11787896708062291},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":-0.4979810265142301},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":-0.7823616600790514},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":-0.8624203821656051},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":-0.010752688172043012}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.045330365273702315},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":0.0656013456686291},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":0.07887302239572631},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.07023394967874834},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.08021037239687744},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.0727062896710906},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":-0.16541339354020115},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":-0.13289217156568686},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":-0.08469527880393787},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":0.040798045602605866}]}

Carnival Corporation & plc engages in the provision of leisure travel services. The company operates a fleet of more than 90 ships visit approximately 700 ports under AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), and Seabourn brand names. It also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches. The company sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. It operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

Sector

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11/30/22
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10-K
11/30/18
10-Q
8/31/18
10-Q
5/31/18
10-Q
2/28/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Carnival Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.314B	$1.113B	$942.1M	$797.7M	$675.5M	$572M	$484.3M	$410.1M	$347.2M	$294M	$249M	$2.49B
DCF		$967.5M	$712.4M	$524.5M	$386.2M	$284.4M	$209.4M	$154.2M	$113.5M	$83.58M	$61.54M	$615.4M
Value	$4.113B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -9.6%

Earnings Stability -38%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	11-2015	11-2016	11-2017	11-2018	11-2019	11-2020	11-2021	11-2022	11-2023	TTM
Net Margin	11%	17%	15%	17%	14%	-180%	-500%	-50%	-0.34%	1.8%
ROA	6.6%	7.9%	7%	8%	7.3%	-17%	-13%	-8.5%	4.1%	4.9%
ROE	7.4%	12%	11%	13%	12%	-50%	-78%	-86%	-1.1%	6.1%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -116.71%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -16.96%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is -3.15%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.82%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -31.78%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -11.21%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	11-2015	11-2016	11-2017	11-2018	11-2019	11-2020	11-2021	11-2022	11-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	3.89	4.85	4.59	6.61	284.76	-3.03	-4.67	-5.75	33.53	25.68
Debt Equity	0.37	0.44	0.45	0.49	0.52	1.46	2.97	5.38	4.86	5.05
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-350%	-	-	-	-350%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 25.68.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -21.10.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.51.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	11-2016	11-2018	11-2020	11-2022	Trend
Revenue	4%	2.7%	57%	77%	28%
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-13%
Stockholders Equity	-16%	-22%	-31%	-2.6%	-3.8%
FCF	-9.9%	-11%	-	-	-54%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.72%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +28.13%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -13.18%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -22.39%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.81%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -11.14%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -54.28%.