Crown Holdings Inc

CCK

Metal Cans

Mkt Cap

$9.873B

PE

23.79

Debt

$8.142B

Cash

$1.218B

EV

$16.8B

FCF

$932M

Market Cap

$9.873B

P/E Ratio

23.79

Debt

$8.142B

Cash

$1.218B

EV

$16.8B

FCF

$932M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":387000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":393000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":496000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":323000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":439000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":510000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":579000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-560000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":727000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":450000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":9097000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":8762000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":8284000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":8698000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":11151000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":11665000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":11575000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":11394000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":12943000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":12010000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.042541497196878095},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04485277333942023},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05987445678416224},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.03713497355713957},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.03936866648731056},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04372053150450064},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.05002159827213823},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.0491486747410918},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.056169357954106464},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.03746877601998335}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":9708000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":10020000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":9599000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":10663000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":15262000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":15505000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":16670000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":13858000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":14301000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":15034000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":387000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":435000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":668000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":923000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1286000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2092000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2604000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2330000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2287000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2864000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.903448275862069},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.7425149700598802},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.34994582881906827},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.34136858475894244},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.24378585086042065},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.22235023041474655},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.24034334763948498},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.31788369042413644},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.15712290502793297}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0834363411619283},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.09251497005988024},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10636524637983123},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1013785988933696},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07364696632158302},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.07713640761044824},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.0758248350329934},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09835474094385914},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09369974127683378},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.08440867367300785}]}

Crown Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies rigid packaging products in Pennsylvania and internationally. It operates through Americas Beverage, European Beverage, Asia Pacific, and Transit Packaging segments. The Americas Beverage segment manufactures recyclable aluminum beverage cans and ends, glass bottles, steel crowns, and aluminum caps. The European Beverage segment manufactures recyclable aluminum beverage cans and ends. The Asia Pacific segment primarily consisting of beverage and non-beverage cans primarily for food cans and specialty packaging. The Transit Packaging segment provides industrial products; protective solutions; automation products, equipment, and tools; and steel and plastic strap, industrial film, and other related products. This segment also offers transit protection products, such as airbags, edge protectors, and honeycomb products, as well as manual, semi-automatic, and automatic equipment and tools used in end of line manufacturing applications to apply industrial solutions consumables. The company also provides aerosol cans and ends. Crown Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Yardley, Pennsylvania.

Sector

BALL

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
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3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Crown Holdings Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$932M	$912.5M	$893.5M	$874.8M	$856.5M	$838.6M	$821.1M	$803.9M	$787.1M	$770.7M	$754.6M	$7.546B
DCF		$793.5M	$675.6M	$575.2M	$489.7M	$416.9M	$355M	$302.2M	$257.3M	$219.1M	$186.5M	$1.865B
Value	$6.136B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 4%

Earnings Stability 13%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	4.5%	6%	3.7%	3.9%	4.4%	5%	-4.9%	5.6%	3.7%	3.5%
ROA	9.3%	11%	10%	7.4%	7.7%	7.6%	9.8%	9.4%	8.4%	8.5%
ROE	90%	74%	35%	34%	24%	22%	-24%	32%	16%	14%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.96%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.2%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.38%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.36%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +17.37%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -3.32%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	9.53	11.14	20.58	80.60	10.97	11.35	71.42	-195.64	12.51	8.74
Debt Equity	13.19	7.62	5.84	6.83	3.83	3.17	2.73	3.08	2.88	2.78
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	76%	100%	100%	100%	-110%	100%	100%	-110%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 8.74.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -25.72.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.10.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	5.4%	1.5%	1.2%	-7.2%	0.016%
Net Income	-1.4%	0.5%	-8.1%	-38%	-4%
Stockholders Equity	23%	17%	3.2%	25%	-3.8%
FCF	5.4%	43%	-3.2%	-	14%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.5%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.02%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.5%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.04%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +17.37%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.79%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +43.36%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.86%.