Caseys General Stores Inc

CASY

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations

Mkt Cap

$10.42B

PE

22.50

Debt

$1.652B

Cash

$439.1M

EV

$11.63B

FCF

$371.5M

Market Cap

$10.42B

P/E Ratio

22.50

Debt

$1.652B

Cash

$439.1M

EV

$11.63B

FCF

$371.5M

Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names. Its stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverages; tobacco and nicotine products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company's stores also provide motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; and gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, its stores offer various products, include soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, electronic accessories, housewares, and pet supplies; and lotto/lottery and prepaid cards. Further, the company operates two stores that sells tobacco and nicotine products; one liquor store; and one grocery store. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

Sector

10-Q
7/31/23
10-K
4/30/23
10-Q
1/31/23
10-Q
10/31/22
10-Q
7/31/22
10-K
4/30/22
10-Q
1/31/22
10-Q
10/31/21
10-Q
7/31/21
10-K
4/30/21
10-Q
1/31/21
10-Q
10/31/20
10-Q
7/31/20
10-K
4/30/20
10-Q
1/31/20
10-Q
10/31/19
10-Q
7/31/19
10-K
4/30/19
10-Q
1/31/19
10-Q
10/31/18
10-Q
7/31/18
10-K
4/30/18
10-Q
1/31/18
10-Q
10/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Caseys General Stores Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$371.5M	$482.9M	$614.4M	$764.6M	$930.2M	$1.106B	$1.284B	$1.455B	$1.609B	$1.734B	$1.821B	$18.21B
DCF		$419.9M	$464.6M	$502.7M	$531.9M	$549.8M	$555.2M	$547.1M	$526M	$492.9M	$450.1M	$4.501B
Value	$9.541B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 10%

Earnings Stability 66%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	04-2015	04-2016	04-2017	04-2018	04-2019	04-2020	04-2021	04-2022	04-2023	TTM
Net Margin	2.3%	3.2%	2.4%	3.8%	2.2%	2.9%	3.6%	2.6%	3%	3.2%
ROA	13%	14%	10%	7.6%	8.6%	10%	10%	9%	11%	11%
ROE	21%	21%	15%	25%	14%	16%	16%	15%	17%	17%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.06%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.37%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.49%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +17.28%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.11%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	04-2015	04-2016	04-2017	04-2018	04-2019	04-2020	04-2021	04-2022	04-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-45.61	11.88	36.25	-8.39	9.69	28.42	3.77	3.70	4.26	4.45
Debt Equity	0.99	0.79	0.79	1.04	0.94	1.13	0.71	0.76	0.65	0.60
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	98%	100%	85%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.45.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.59.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.85.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	04-2016	04-2018	04-2020	04-2022	Trend
Revenue	11%	12%	18%	17%	3.4%
Net Income	10%	7%	19%	31%	-0.51%
Stockholders Equity	14%	16%	17%	19%	-0.16%
FCF	28%	-	84%	-12%	21%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.46%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.44%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.04%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.51%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.92%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.16%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +21.34%.