Carrier Global Corp

CARR

Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip

Mkt Cap

$58.15B

PE

46.71

Debt

$16.9B

Cash

$1.317B

EV

$73.73B

FCF

$2.024B

Market Cap

$58.15B

P/E Ratio

46.71

Debt

$16.9B

Cash

$1.317B

EV

$73.73B

FCF

$2.024B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2734000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2116000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1982000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1664000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3534000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1349000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":18914000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":18608000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":17456000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":20613000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":20421000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":22098000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1445490113143703},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11371453138435082},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.11354262144821264},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.0807257555911318},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.17305714705450273},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06104624852927867}],"Assets":[{"time":"2019-12-30","value":22406000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":25093000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":26172000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":26086000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":32822000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":14269000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":14435000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":6578000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":7094000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":8076000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":9005000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.19160417688695774},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.14658815379286458},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.30130738826391},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.23456442063715816},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.437592867756315},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.14980566352026653}],"ROA":[{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11925377131125592},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.12286294982664488},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.10106220388201131},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.1730813463160316},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06995308025105113}]}

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Aritech, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Toshiba, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Carrier Global Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$2.024B	$2.042B	$2.061B	$2.079B	$2.098B	$2.117B	$2.136B	$2.155B	$2.175B	$2.194B	$2.214B	$22.14B
DCF		$1.776B	$1.558B	$1.367B	$1.2B	$1.053B	$923.5M	$810.3M	$710.9M	$623.8M	$547.3M	$5.473B
Value	$16.04B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -1%

Earnings Stability -64%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	14%	11%	11%	8.1%	17%	6.1%	5.4%
ROA	-	12%	12%	10%	17%	7%	5.5%
ROE	19%	15%	30%	23%	44%	15%	10%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.44%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.78%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.72%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.48%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +24.36%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.71%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	0.31	7.61	5.22	6.36	6.69	8.35
Debt Equity	-	0.04	1.60	1.39	1.09	1.59	1.42
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	73%	100%	56%	56%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 8.35.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.15.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.56.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	3.2%	8.2%	8.2%	2.5%
Net Income	-13%	-12%	-62%	4%
Stockholders Equity	-8.8%	11%	12%	8.9%
FCF	3.6%	16%	54%	10%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.16%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.49%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -13.18%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.03%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -8.8%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.9%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.59%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +10.21%.